The nation’s politicians are consumed by the referendum debate. 23 June is seen as a momentous day. But politics will not stop on 24 June. Who has the campaign benefited so far? And, just as interestingly, who is on the wane? A Good Campaign Jeremy Corbyn. Simply by doing not very much, he has found that the heat has come off him to a large extent. The public is being reminded that Labour is not the only divided party and…
In 2010, Britain was being wrestled over by two parties competing to portray themselves to the public as the natural party of government. Â In his first conference speech, David Cameron returned repeatedly to the theme of “substance”. Â He told his party: “Real substance is about taking time to think things through, not trotting out easy answers that people might want to hear. Â It’s about sticking to your guns. Â It’s about character, judgement, and consistency. Â It’s about policy, yes. Â But it’s…
Will Trump rise to the occasion? Betting on the Republican nominee and related markets has been a mix of the interesting, surreal and downright bizarre. The betting overreaction to Marco Rubio finishing third in Iowa and becoming the favourite for the nomination was a particular highlight and profitable for many. But the GOP nomination contest has been marked by a certain viciousness between the candidates, with Donald Trump giving Ted Cruz the epithet Lyin’ Ted Cruz, whilst the cherry on…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w21s5r2nTlA Boris Johnson engaging in a level of flip flopping that would make even Andy Burnham blush. pic.twitter.com/nAlfuPrG3a — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 27, 2016 If he wants to be leader, he needs to improve sharply in the next three months just to make the final two of the next Tory leadership contest. Look at the above video from Boris Johnson’s appearance at the Treasury Select Committee earlier on this week, where his past comments/hyperbole on the EU came back to…
Should you be betting on George Osborne going to the Foreign Office? After a sub-optimal fortnight for George Osborne, William Hill have a market up on George Osborne’s next Cabinet job. I think backing the 5/2 on him as next Foreign Secretary might be the best option. I suspect after the referendum (assuming a Remain victory) David Cameron will have a reconciliation reshuffle and move Osborne out of Number 11. Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary are the only jobs that won’t…
Alastair Meeks on the media influence on the EU referendum The EU referendum has turned into a battle between the Prime Minister and the right-leaning newspapers. In 1992 the Sun hubristically claimed to have be the one wot won it. Will it be the Mail wot wins the EU referendum for Leave in 2016? The world has changed in a generation. In 1992, five daily newspapers sold more than a million copies and the top twelve biggest selling daily newspapers…
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. By that definition, the Eurosceptic right of the Conservative party is insane. It’s not as if we haven’t been here before. In the mid-1990s, a cell of dissident Conservative MPs contrived to make government with a small majority a living hell for their nominal party superiors, challenging the government on a succession of grievances (real and imagined) relating to Britain’s membership of the EU. By the…
Today is a further example of why the Tories think they have 2020 election won. Corbyn simply isn’t up to the job of Leader of the Opposition. Did Corbyn really not mention IDS, or any of his attacks on Osborne? Did I miss that bit? Should have read out the Marr Show transcript — Jack Blanchard (@Jack_Blanchard_) March 21, 2016 Labour MP: “It takes a particularly special kind of genius to fuck up today. But Jeremy obliged” – Via @georgeeaton…