Browsed by
Author: TSE

Remain’s long term problems

Remain’s long term problems

Comments 0 Comment

Imagine a UK EU In/Out Referendum with these two in The White House & Number 10 respectively. Pic by @GeneralBoles pic.twitter.com/MsAd7FZawl — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 24, 2016 Even if Remain wins in June, there may be future In/Out referendums and that should give Leave hope and worry Remain. One of the most interesting aspects of this referendum campaign is David Cameron ignoring Harold Wilson’s precedent of sitting out an In/Out EC/EU referendum. The reason for the breaking this precedent might…

Read More Read More

Why playing the man and not the issue might not be a good strategy for LEAVE

Why playing the man and not the issue might not be a good strategy for LEAVE

Comments 0 Comment

Alastair Meeks has doubts about the BREXIT campaign approach Brexiteers have shown themselves to be very angry about many things.  These things include, but are not confined to, the conduct of the referendum campaign itself.  Their complaints are many and various but three in particular stand out: first, the In campaign is almost exclusively trying to scare floating voters into the status quo (“Project Fear” as it is often called); secondly, the Prime Minister has loaded the deck against them…

Read More Read More

The punters at Betfair think Remain have this in the bag

The punters at Betfair think Remain have this in the bag

Comments 0 Comment

    77% chance of REMAIN winning says @MattSingh_ With his accuracy at GE2015 punters take note https://t.co/wKD7ooJRHD pic.twitter.com/BXUJA9fRBy — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 17, 2016 But here’s a reminder that betting markets aren’t infallible. This time last year, Ed Miliband was odds-on favourite to be next Prime Minister. pic.twitter.com/T9eaB53Zgq — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) April 14, 2016 @MSmithsonPB About 75% of money staked on elections happens in the last 4 weeks, even if the markets have been running for years. —…

Read More Read More

The perceptions on the Tories and Labour

The perceptions on the Tories and Labour

Comments 0 Comment

YouGov have published some polling, conducted within the last week on which groups the voters identify the Tory Party and the Labour Party with. The findings aren’t that surprising. The Tories are perceived to be really close to the rich, businessmen/The City, and voters in the south. Whilst Labour are seen as being really close to trade unions, the working class, and benefit claimants. The most interesting finding from this polling was that the Tories are seen as being not…

Read More Read More

Why the Tories could be being complacent over Jeremy Corbyn

Why the Tories could be being complacent over Jeremy Corbyn

Comments 0 Comment

Via @montie More bad polling comparisons for Osborne. Look how far he's behind Corbyn pic.twitter.com/eXP1DSSqyT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2016 Alastair Meeks says predicting GE2020 is harder than the blues think Much comment has been passed this week on David Cameron’s falling ratings.  He now ranks behind Jeremy Corbyn on favourability ratings with YouGov.  “How low he has sunk” is the usual comment, and it is true. But as the table above shows, this is not a problem…

Read More Read More

Alastair Meeks looking ahead to the GE2020

Alastair Meeks looking ahead to the GE2020

Comments 0 Comment

The Tories are evens to get an overall majority in 2020. Why? asks Alastair Meeks We’ve been here before.  We languish under a Conservative government with a tiny majority, distracted by a frenzied and incomprehensible internal argument being conducted in raised voices over the EU (a subject about which the public largely do not care), staggering from wholly avoidable crisis to wholly avoidable crisis.  The public rightly see the Conservative party as horribly divided.  Disquiet is growing about their basic…

Read More Read More

Forget Paul Ryan, it’s Cruz or bust for the NeverTrump campaign

Forget Paul Ryan, it’s Cruz or bust for the NeverTrump campaign

Comments 0 Comment

As Wisconsin goes to the polls, it’s Ted Cruz (and not Paul Ryan) that the GOP must unite behind if they want to stop Donald Trump says Keiran Pedley It’s fair to say that Wisconsin occupies something of an odd place on the GOP primary calendar in 2016. If it feels like a long time since Republican voters have been to the polls that’s because it has been. By the time that Wisconsin votes this week, it will have been…

Read More Read More

Ups and downs. The referendum’s impact on individual politicians

Ups and downs. The referendum’s impact on individual politicians

Comments 0 Comment

The nation’s politicians are consumed by the referendum debate. 23 June is seen as a momentous day. But politics will not stop on 24 June. Who has the campaign benefited so far? And, just as interestingly, who is on the wane? A Good Campaign Jeremy Corbyn. Simply by doing not very much, he has found that the heat has come off him to a large extent.  The public is being reminded that Labour is not the only divided party and…

Read More Read More