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A post Brexit vote recession could cost the Tories the next election

A post Brexit vote recession could cost the Tories the next election

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Can you spot what subtle message David Cameron is trying to get across if the UK votes to leave the EU? pic.twitter.com/szzuh9VBT0 — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 14, 2016 Brexiteers are in danger of being blamed for the next recession even if it has nothing do with Brexit On one side we have, inter alia, the Prime Minister, the Chancellor, and the great and the good, from the IMF, the OECD, NIESR, The Bank of England, and their Governor, Mark Carney,…

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Sentence first, verdict later. Rushing to judgement over BHS

Sentence first, verdict later. Rushing to judgement over BHS

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Sir Philip Green potentially makes for a good pantomime villain.  He has never gone out of his way to charm the public and he has contacts in elite political circles.  His wealth is fabulous and flaunted.  His tax management strategies have blazed across the front pages of the newspapers.  And now his former flagship company BHS has gone bust, leaving a pension scheme that is half a billion pounds short, and he has taken large dividends from the company over…

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Guest Post: Summer 2016 might lead to a generational shift in the two main parties

Guest Post: Summer 2016 might lead to a generational shift in the two main parties

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Guest Post by Mortimer Summer 2016 could prove a watershed moment in modern British politics. April and early-May have already seen the incumbent leadership of the English Conservatives shown up in comparison to Ruth Davidson’s success north of the border, and the old guard of an apparently gaffe-obsessed Labour Party cheered by victory in London yet criticised by the triumphant Sadiq Khan. More pressure on the Conservative leadership is likely if, as the polls currently indicate, the referendum on June…

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Urgent question. David Cameron’s big mistake so far

Urgent question. David Cameron’s big mistake so far

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As with any bureaucratic body, the EU pulses to a rhythm of regular meetings.  The EU being a more complex body than most, multiple cycles of meetings are sinuously interwoven.  Most prominently, at least four times a year, the Prime Ministers of the 28 member countries convene for the European Council.  The most vital business of the day is dealt with at these summits. Anyone with experience of meetings knows that to control the agenda is to control the meeting….

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Freedom for Tooting – the by-election to fill Sadiq’s seat could be tight

Freedom for Tooting – the by-election to fill Sadiq’s seat could be tight

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Picture credit: Wikimedia Commons Alastair Meeks assesses the chances Zac Goldsmith’s father once said that when a man married his mistress, that created a vacancy.  In the same way, his successful opponent for the Mayor of London contest can be expected shortly to be standing down as MP for Tooting, giving rise to a fascinating by-election. Tooting has long been a Labour stronghold.  It has been held by the party ever since its creation in 1974.  The closest that the…

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Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and still lost

Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and still lost

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A pointer to the EU Referendum? One of the patterns that have emerged with a lot of the EU referendum polling is that the over 65s favour Brexit by a substantial margin, which gives the Leaver side a lot of hope that they may win the referendum on June 23rd, because older voters have had a higher turnout than younger voters in past elections. But look at the charts above from the final London Mayoral polling by YouGov and Opinium,…

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If Corbyn does becomes Prime Minister he should thank those behind the Zac campaign

If Corbyn does becomes Prime Minister he should thank those behind the Zac campaign

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The Wrath of Khan, Sadiq Khan accuses David Cameron of Trump-like anti Muslim tactics https://t.co/d4xYcljodG pic.twitter.com/kW3l90MlbN — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 7, 2016 As a Muslim I was appalled at Goldsmith’s campaign, as a Tory I’m appalled that Goldsmith’s campaign makes Corbyn as PM more likely. When your own sister criticises your campaign and praises your opponent as a good role model, when the media runs a quiz asking Who said it: Britain First or Zac Goldsmith? deep down you must know you’ve run…

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Super Thursday – what have we learned so far?

Super Thursday – what have we learned so far?

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Key moments of the #Elections2016 so far. Live updates here: https://t.co/ZUqdq49lFc https://t.co/PwHiCCzPlw — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) May 6, 2016 We now have a good bank of results, which while incomplete allow us to draw some conclusions.  So what conclusions can we draw? The pollsters have either made the right corrections from last year or have been lucky The local election results so far in are very much in line with the broad thrust of the opinion polls we’ve been…

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