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The uncertainty principle. A step by step guide to handling confusing polling in your betting

The uncertainty principle. A step by step guide to handling confusing polling in your betting

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The Alastair Meeks Decision Tree You can access the descison tree here The EU referendum polling is all over the shop, with a stark divide between the phone polls, which show a clear Remain lead, and the online polls, which show it neck and neck with Leave perhaps fractionally ahead.  How on earth are we supposed to cater for this in our betting? Here’s how.  We only need to assess two things: what the current state of public opinion is…

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Perhaps Leave really are going to win this referendum

Perhaps Leave really are going to win this referendum

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What if the phone polls are wrong? Earlier on this year I spoke to someone who works in the polling industry, they ruefully observed that the 2015 general election opinion polls accurately predicted the Tory victory, so long as you ignored the headline voting intention figures and focussed on the supplementaries, and I’m starting to wonder if we might be seeing a similar situation with this EU referendum, where whatever the headline voting intention figure is, the supplementaries are generally…

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The next recession

The next recession

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Trying to predict the next recession has the danger making you sound like The Ancient Mariner but William Hill have a market up if the UK is going to have recession by the end of 2017 if you want to bet on the timing of it. I’m not an economist, so this piece should be viewed in that spirit. Most of the economic mood music seems to indicate backing a recession occurring before the end of 2017 might be the best…

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Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet

Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet

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A guide by Alastair Meeks on betting on the overall EURef outcome Given the amount of heat that has been generated by the EU referendum, there has been surprisingly little discussion about the actual chances of the main event.  It’s time to put that right. At the time of writing, Remain is 1.31 on Betfair (a 76% chance)   I understand that the conventional bookies have seen Remain overwhelmingly favoured at all stages despite the short odds offered.  Should you be…

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The EU Dog that hasn’t barked. Yet

The EU Dog that hasn’t barked. Yet

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A guest slot by Cyclefree It was Socrates who said that the “unexamined life is not worth living”.  By the same token, one might also say that the unexamined EU is not worth being a member of. And – despite all the claims and counter-claims, exaggerations, half-truths, figures plucked out of obscure studies or the air and celebrity or heavy weight endorsements – it often feels that all the referendum campaign has amounted to is little more than “a tale…

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The referendum will be decided by voters who don’t feel strongly about it either way

The referendum will be decided by voters who don’t feel strongly about it either way

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Alastair Meeks on the messaging challenges this presents for IN and OUT Leave campaigners have been vehemently arguing that we urgently need to leave the EU for many years as a top priority.  Such is their vehemence and their prominence, it is easy to forget that this is a minority view.  Ipsos-MORI have been tracking what the public considers to be the important issues of the day for decades.  Most of the time, the EU languishes at about 10% naming…

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Game over. What should the Labour right do now that it has lost?

Game over. What should the Labour right do now that it has lost?

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Alastair Meeks looks at the options As Leonard Cohen once crooned, everybody knows the war is over, everybody knows the good guys lost.  With Labour’s surprisingly good performance in the recent election round, even the faint hope of a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership this year has evaporated.  This will give him the time and space to effect the necessary reforms of the party to ensure that he cannot be ousted by a Parliamentary coup. So the Labour right are…

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Mortimer with a tip for the more adventurous gamblers

Mortimer with a tip for the more adventurous gamblers

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A few days ago during the inevitable Political Betting dissection of the too-ings and fro-ings of another day in the EU referendum campaign the fact that this race really might be a close one began to sink in. I am a moderate Leaver – the sort who accepts that there are weaknesses in some of the arguments put forward by the Leave campaign, but for various reasons sees that our future and Europe’s might be better apart. I can therefore…

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