Expertise is a valuable skill but one of the problems with experts is that all that knowledge can leave you unwilling or unable to persuade. If you think, if you know that X is the right answer and yet people persist in not agreeing, it is hard not to feel infuriated, not to feel that some combination of wilful stupidity and/or ignorance and/or bloody-mindedness is refusing to accept the obvious. And it is easy from there to fall into the…
The Brexit paradox: The more likely it looks to happen the less likely it is to happen? After yesterday’s polls it might be easy to say Monday the 13th of June was the day the day polls turned, but as that Guardian front page above shows, it is never wise to assume things like that. One of the reasons is that earlier on this month I spoke to someone who is working for Vote Leave, and they were worried about…
ORB Phone poll All Voters Remain 49 (-3) Leave 44 (+4) Certain to vote Leave 49 (+2) Remain 48 (nc) — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 13, 2016 The headline figures with Remain ahead by 5% is the figure ORB wishes to be judged on, whilst the Telegraph prefers to focus on the certain to vote figures. However what will really concern Remain is that Sir Lynton Crosby says Leave’s tactics ‘maybe paying off’ Whilst YouGov has Leave 7% ahead Exclusive –…
Latest Betfair odds. Leave was only a 16% chance a few weeks ago. £1.8m matched in the last day. £26m matched so far pic.twitter.com/qvHmwuHQrK — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 13, 2016 The latest ICM polls for The Guardian are out. Support for leaving the EU is strengthening, with both phone and online surveys reporting a six-point lead, according to a new pair of Guardian/ICM polls. Leave now enjoys a 53%-47% advantage once “don’t knows” are excluded, according to the research conducted…
Following on from last week’s reports about the plans to topple Corbyn, The Telegraph are reporting Labour rebels believe they can topple Jeremy Corbyn after the EU referendum in a 24-hour blitz by jumping on a media storm of his own making. Moderate MPs who believe Mr Corbyn can never win back power think his failure to close down public rows which flare up and dominate the news channels leaves him vulnerable. By fanning the flames with front bench resignations and…
I have never been political. I’ve never joined any party, and my voting record is patchy. What I do is start technology businesses, and I’m on my third right now. Knowing rcs1000 (he’s an investor in my firm), I asked if I could write a piece for politicalbetting about the impact of leaving the EU on London’s technology start up scene. Let me start by putting London’s tech scene in context. London has the second largest concentration of technology start-ups…
Fascinating by @YouGov. Voters would rather their side win the #EUref than win the Euros https://t.co/wVWiX1B1cI pic.twitter.com/S1asb8Nm3Q — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 12, 2016 Though the Welsh are more evenly split pic.twitter.com/foxbYRgIAV — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 12, 2016 YouGov surveyed football fans across Britain and asked those who were planning on supporting England or Wales at the Euros and know how they will vote on June 23, whether they would rather see the EU referendum go their way or see their…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69sNgfbU9Gs Above the Latest Stronger In PPB, you can view the latest Vote Leave PPB by clicking here ‘Get your facts first then you can distort them as you please’ Mark Twain Over the last few weeks research companies running focus groups will have been dissecting psychoanalysing and picking to death the innermost thoughts of voters. When Seth Godin wrote “Facts are unimportant. What matters is what people believe.” This wasn’t meant as a lesson to advertisers on how to hoodwink…