Remain’s perfomance so far is not consistent with a Remain victory It is literally 50-50 as things stand. Problem for Remain is that if they’re going to win they needed to be ahead at this stage — Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) June 24, 2016 ITV News is forecasting 75% probability of Brexit, of UK voting to leave EU. This is huge. — Robert Peston (@Peston) June 24, 2016 @chrishanretty has updated his forecast and given Remain a 0% chance of success…
Basildon Leave 38 pts ahead, vs 25 pts expected if it's 50-50 nationally. Out of 20 results only 2 have Remain doing better than expected. — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) June 24, 2016 Remain blame game now in full swing – usually a reliable indicator of defeat. — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) June 24, 2016 Chris Bryant says 'tosspot' Miliband to blame for state Labour is in – https://t.co/dpPxRbJ5Ko — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) June 24, 2016 Brexiteers think Labour are conceding Wales —…
Sunderland, #EUref result: Remain: 38.7% (51,930) Leave: 61.3% (82,394) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 23, 2016 We are one good Leave result away from crossover on Betfair pic.twitter.com/ieKK8FRJJM — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 "We are much tighter than we thought at the beginning of the night" @philipjcowley says after Sunderland result. — Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) June 23, 2016 2.4 per cent fall in sterling in just seconds…. https://t.co/nAdXDVRDNX — Jim Pickard ? (@PickardJE) June 23, 2016
Sources suggesting Sunderland might be as high as 62% for Leave, that would be quite something — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 23, 2016 Leave odds tumbling on Betfair pic.twitter.com/7nq1y7IPfe — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 Newcastle not good for Remain pic.twitter.com/yrYK4Jxekb — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2016 TSE
Unsurprisingly Leave have hit 15 on Betfair but does high turnout favour Leave? UKIP leader Nigel Farage says it "looks like 'Remain' will edge it" #EUref — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) June 23, 2016 . @Arron_banks on Nigel Farage's early concession of a Remain win: "He doesn't know anything." pic.twitter.com/1ijwSgUBFY — Lucy Fisher (@LOS_Fisher) June 23, 2016 YouGov #EURef on the day poll: Remain 52% Leave 48%. Not an exit poll. This type of poll was fairly out at GE2015…
Far too little consideration has yet gone into what the referendum result will mean for British politics, even though it is now just a few days away. If the polls are right – big if – Leave will win. It’s time to consider what that might mean. David Cameron’s authority would be dust. He has staked everything on the referendum and if Leave win he would have lost. While many Conservative members remain well-disposed to him, including many who support…
Ladbrokes have a market up on a second referendum to be held before July 2017 at odds of 10/1. My initial thought was no bet for me, but then I remembered Leave’s front man, Boris Johnson, has in the past talked about two referendums, “Johnson has told friends that a “no” vote is desirable because it would prompt Brussels to offer a much better deal, which the public could then support in a second referendum.” Though Boris has u-turned on…
Cyclefree says it is notable that few in the Remain camp have sought to make a positive case for the EU. So let me make some suggestions. (And no, this gives you no clue as to my vote.) The EU as a force for good. Who knows whether Western civilization will survive a Brexit. It survived the temporary disappearance of Poland so it can surely survive the departure of a damp island in the middle of the North Sea. But…