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Analysing the best PM polling – is it as good for Theresa as it appears?

Analysing the best PM polling – is it as good for Theresa as it appears?

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Graphic: The most recent YouGov polling on who would make the best PM It has become a regular occurrence.  At least once a month, YouGov release an opinion poll.  Each recent month, the Conservatives have recorded a very comfortable lead over Labour.  And each month, Theresa May has recorded an enormous lead over Jeremy Corbyn in the public’s assessment of who would be the best Prime Minister.  This has widely been taken to mean that the Conservatives’ position is even…

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Experto credite, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

Experto credite, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

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Graphic credit: Twitter Economists have had their Michael Fish moment, so said Andy Haldane, chief economist of the Bank of England speaking at the Institute of Government last week.  Having predicted a post-Brexit referendum crash that failed to happen, he believes the profession of economics is to some degree in crisis.  But it raises a wider question: what weight should we put in the judgements of experts?  Have we had enough of experts? This is a question of much recent…

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Lucian Fletcher on the implications of the dramatic events in Northern Ireland politics

Lucian Fletcher on the implications of the dramatic events in Northern Ireland politics

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Embed from Getty Images The resignation of Martin McGuinness means that there is no longer any leadership in the Executive Office of Northern Ireland. The jointly-held nature of the position of First Minister/Deputy First Minister means that with Martin’s resignation, Arlene Foster has effectively been dragged kicking and screaming from office. For those (most people, I expect) who don’t pay attention to Stormont politics as long as there’s no violence, this is all very odd. The government of Northern Ireland…

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The consequences of what has already happened and the consequences of what is yet to come

The consequences of what has already happened and the consequences of what is yet to come

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Embed from Getty Images   Britain is Brexiting, Trump is triumphant in the USA, France is flirting with the Front National and in countries as diverse as Sweden, Austria and the Netherlands, the far right is doing more than alright.  Yes, yes, but what does it mean? Much energy has been expended analysing why populism and the alt right are doing so well right now.  Rather less has been spent on considering the practical implications not just for individual countries…

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Why I’ve backed Diane Abbott to be next Labour leader

Why I’ve backed Diane Abbott to be next Labour leader

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Embed from Getty Images I can’t quite believe I placed this bet Two of my underlying assumptions about politics in this country are 1) Jeremy Corbyn will be Labour leader at the next general election and 2) Were a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour party to lose a general election (especially if it is a comprehensive defeat) Labour will return to political sanity and appoint someone more centrist and electable, but what if those assumptions are wrong, cui bono? I’ve decided…

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A 20/1 tip to start off 2017

A 20/1 tip to start off 2017

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Why I’m taking the 20/1 on Farage being UKIP leader at the end of 2017 Betway have some specials up on what will happen to UKIP in 2017, the one that caught my attention was Nigel Farage to end 2017 as UKIP leader at 20/1, much like a persistent rash, Nigel Farage regularly returns as the next UKIP leader. Ladbrokes make it 3/1 that Nigel Farage will be the next UKIP leader, so by my reckoning the 20/1 on Farage…

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NEW PETITION calling for everyone to be able to see a GP within 48 hours needs your support

NEW PETITION calling for everyone to be able to see a GP within 48 hours needs your support

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2017 will be dominated by Brexit but we shouldn’t lose sight of the real pressures facing our NHS, whatever your politics, writes Keiran Pedley Until 2016, I was typical of many thirty-somethings in that I had little need to see my local GP too often. This year that changed. Due to a recurring issue I found myself having to see the GP more regularly. Nothing critical, I’m fine, but this experience opened my eyes to a real problem and prompted…

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Surely Douglas Carswell can’t remain in UKIP for much longer, can he?

Surely Douglas Carswell can’t remain in UKIP for much longer, can he?

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Embed from Getty Images Just before Christmas, Douglas Carswell UKIP’s sole MP received an interesting present from former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who effectively told Carswell to begat off. Douglas Carswell should not be in Ukip, Nigel Farage has said of the party’s only MP, despite vowing not to interfere in internal politics after stepping down as leader. Relations between Farage and the Clacton MP have soured since Carswell’s high-profile defection from the Conservatives in 2014. “He shouldn’t be in the…

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