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Author: TSE

Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

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It is in the nature of political junkies, like sharks, to be constantly moving forwards, and like goldfish, to be constantly forgetting what has just happened.  We should try to do better.  In the wake of two extraordinary by-elections we should reflect on their implications.  Because, as it happens this time, their implications are manifold. The Conservatives did incredibly well This is one of those rare occasions where the media have actually underplayed something.  The Conservatives’ victory in Copeland is…

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If Labour don’t take the lead in the polls, is that how John McDonnell topples Jeremy Corbyn?

If Labour don’t take the lead in the polls, is that how John McDonnell topples Jeremy Corbyn?

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Is this how John McDonnell topples Corbyn? If Corbyn doesn't improve in the poll. From earlier on this month. https://t.co/gPLPTnD88h pic.twitter.com/SiLovgH2IA — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 If Corbyn is toppled will it be one of his inner circle that wields the dagger? Earlier on this month John McDonnell gave an interview in which he said the polls will reverse in the next 12 months. We’ve already seen articles saying that McDonnell is taking over. If McDonnell feels that Labour…

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If Jeremy Corbyn wants to see Labour humiliated at a general election he will continue as Labour leader

If Jeremy Corbyn wants to see Labour humiliated at a general election he will continue as Labour leader

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Tories GAIN Copeland. Surely Corbyn has to realise he is toxic with voters? pic.twitter.com/2Q29M0Z58y — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 Copeland, result:CON: 44.3% (+8.5)LAB: 37.3% (-4.9)LDEM: 7.2% (+3.8)UKIP: 6.5% (-9.0)IND: 2.6% (+2.6)GRN: 1.7% (-1.3) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 24, 2017 #Copeland declaration imminent. A reminder there's been nothing directly comparable to this since the 19th century https://t.co/he6JBa4Y8B pic.twitter.com/90mk2A7tFv — Number Cruncher Politics UK (@NCPoliticsUK) February 24, 2017 In Copeland, Labour came very close to saying vote for us or…

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If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can they win without defector-incumbents?

If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can they win without defector-incumbents?

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Gareth Snell the embodiment of David Cameron's maxim about Twitter wins the Stoke by-election. Paul Nuttall loses in the capital of Brexit pic.twitter.com/NOeE2kJC79 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 Stoke on Trent Central, result:LAB: 37.1% (-2.2)UKIP: 24.7% (+2.1)CON: 24.3% (+1.8)LDEM: 9.8% (+5.7)GRN: 1.4% (-2.2) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 24, 2017 Stoke is only the 6th time in a by election in England since 1970 that the government has seen their share of the vote rise – John Curtice —…

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Expectations management or the harbinger of a truly terrible night for Labour?

Expectations management or the harbinger of a truly terrible night for Labour?

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Interesting via @AndrewSparrow https://t.co/pdMYYngJqi pic.twitter.com/Wb4kVE1qa1 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 23, 2017 Chatter is Labour hold Stoke, Tories take Copeland but consensus so often wrong! results in a few hours that could change political mood — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) February 23, 2017 Looks like party estimates of 30% turnout in Stoke could come true. Utterly dire – and could swing the entire result. From today's WaughZone pic.twitter.com/8ZtAN6vVjl — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) February 23, 2017 Latest Betfair odds implies UKIP have…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: Looking at Mrs Thatcher & how LAB can re-engage with disaffected working class voters

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: Looking at Mrs Thatcher & how LAB can re-engage with disaffected working class voters

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts:   In part one, Keiran is joined by the former Editor of the Sunday Telegraph, Daily Telegraph and Spectator Charles Moore. Charles is also the authorised biographer of former Conservative Prime Minister Lady Margaret Thatcher and still writes columns for the Telegraph and Spectator today. He spoke to Keiran to give his perspective on the recent Polling Matters / Opinium survey that showed Thatcher as the most popular PM of…

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Fifty shades of grey voters. Corbyn’s punishing polling with older voters.

Fifty shades of grey voters. Corbyn’s punishing polling with older voters.

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Corbyn is doing worse with older voters, and history shows older voters turn out to vote and are a growing demographic. A few weeks ago whilst looking at the polling entrails I was struck by how much of a lead with older voters Mrs May was developing over Jeremy Corbyn in the best Prime Minister polling. As we can see with the chart above, there’s a clear correlation with the older you get, the more you prefer Mrs May as…

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Polling Matters review of the week: Immigration, Blair and looking ahead to Copeland and Stoke

Polling Matters review of the week: Immigration, Blair and looking ahead to Copeland and Stoke

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Keiran Pedley reviews the events of last week and looks ahead to a big few days for Labour. On this week’s podcast I was joined by Leo Barasi and Harry Carr of Sky Data. We looked at Trump’s approval ratings in their historic context, YouGov polling for Channel 4 on ‘fake news’ and our latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey. You can listen to the episode below or by clicking here. Our Polling Matters survey this week was on immigration….

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