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Author: TSE

The €60 billion question. The EU exit charge and what it means

The €60 billion question. The EU exit charge and what it means

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Picture: The front page of yesterday’s Times newspaper. Alastair Meeks, who accurately predicted the outcome of the Article 50 case, looks at the looming Brexit divorce settlement. One of the many points that will be up for discussion as part of Britain leaving the EU is what Britain will pay as part of the divorce settlement, if anything.  Michel Barnier, the EU’s negotiator, is reportedly making a demand for €60 billion his opening gambit.  The UK government, backed up by…

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The PB/Polling Matters podcast: After the by-elections what next for LAB/Corbyn/UKIP plus a look at Northern Ireland

The PB/Polling Matters podcast: After the by-elections what next for LAB/Corbyn/UKIP plus a look at Northern Ireland

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics. The panel discuss the fallout from and historical significance of last week’s by-elections in Stoke and Copeland and what happens next for Labour and UKIP. Keiran introduces polling that shows the significance of Corbyn’s leadership in Labour’s situation as well as polling from YouGov on who might replace Corbyn as Labour leader should he be replaced. Finally, Keiran and Adam unveil…

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Mapping across – how the Brexit vote might translate onto the next general election

Mapping across – how the Brexit vote might translate onto the next general election

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(Source: Prof John Curtice) The referendum vote cut across party loyalties.  While Conservative supporters primarily voted Leave and Labour supporters primarily voted Remain, substantial minorities of both party supporters dissented from their colleagues.  This gives both major parties a potential headache about how to proceed in the wake of the vote, the more so because the British Election Study found in October that people were more likely to identify themselves as Remain or Leave supporters than followers of a particular…

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Why Corbyn should stay

Why Corbyn should stay

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In 1981 when Tony Benn stood for the Deputy Leadership against Healey and lost by a 0.9% margin , he got 30% of the Parliamentary Labour MPs’ votes but 19 members of Tribune abstained, including one Neil Kinnock.  Margaret Beckett denounced him furiously as a Judas, allegedly prompting another MP to say: “So Benn is Jesus now, is he?”.  Following the 1983 defeat, it took Kinnock two elections and hand-to-hand combat with Militant and others before Labour once again became…

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POLL ALERT: Labour has a ‘Corbyn problem’ and it’s not going away

POLL ALERT: Labour has a ‘Corbyn problem’ and it’s not going away

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Two-thirds of voters think he’s the wrong person to lead Labour into a General Election A new Polling Matters / Opinium survey, taken before the Copeland and Stoke by-elections, shows that voters think Corbyn is the wrong person to lead Labour into a General Election, with those considering voting Labour more likely to do so if he is replaced. Keiran Pedley explains. In the latest of a series of surveys for the Polling Matters podcast, Opinium asked three questions of…

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Betting on whether or not Jeremy Hunt will be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2018

Betting on whether or not Jeremy Hunt will be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2018

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But is there another Jeremy Hunt bet you should be making? William Hill have a market up whether Jeremy Hunt will be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2018. I think taking the 2/5 on him being Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2018 is the best option. Here’s why you’ll be getting a 40% return in less than ten months. One of the things to take from the Copeland by-election is that Labour’s attempts to use the…

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77% of non Labour voters say Labour has the wrong leader and 73% say Labour has the wrong policies

77% of non Labour voters say Labour has the wrong leader and 73% say Labour has the wrong policies

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Some truly damning @ComResPolls polling for Corbyn and it contains some worrying polling for Labour too. https://t.co/0S4xgZYGw4 pic.twitter.com/ch34ZuPFXS — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 25, 2017 This poll, like the result in Copeland, is a harbinger of a truly awful general election result for Labour. When will Corbyn take responsibility? ComRes have conducted a poll for The Sunday Mirror, and if you’re Jeremy Corbyn or a Labour supporter it makes me for painful reading, the poll shows A damning poll after Labour’s…

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Ahead of tomorrow night’s Oscars Roger’s annual assessment & predictions

Ahead of tomorrow night’s Oscars Roger’s annual assessment & predictions

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As many PBers will attest his guide’s been on the money in the past 2017 Oscars. They say when things aren’t going well the Oscars cheer themselves up by turning to fantasy. Enter the musical La La Land with a record 14 nominations. Cheesy and cheerful it might take your mind off Trump for a couple of hours but sadly the memory of it will disappear long before he does. Best Picture: Arrival, Fences, Hackshaw Ridge, Hell or High Water,…

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