Browsed by
Author: TSE

Why a 1997 style landslide or even a 1983 style landslide might not happen, but maybe a 2005 style majority of 66 could

Why a 1997 style landslide or even a 1983 style landslide might not happen, but maybe a 2005 style majority of 66 could

Comments 0 Comment

Judging by the polls, the political mood, the intuition of most political watchers, and pretty much everyone in the country, sans the Corbynites, are expecting Mrs May’s Tories to win so comprehensively the only thing in doubt is which three figure number will be the size of the Tory majority, but today I’ll explain why that might be wrong, and why Mrs May could end up with just a modest double digit majority. But here are the reasons why I…

Read More Read More

Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most incredible polling night I can ever remember

Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most incredible polling night I can ever remember

Comments 0 Comment

  New ComRes poll for Sunday Mirror: HIGHEST TORY VOTE SHARE SINCE JAN 1991 Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2) — Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) April 22, 2017 ComRes for Sunday Mirror: T May has higher best PM rating than Corbyn, Farron & Nuttall combined — Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) April 22, 2017 If this poll is as wrong in the other direction as the polls in 2015, 1992 and 1970 *put together*, Tories still have more seats than Labour…

Read More Read More

Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are on course for an absolute hammering if the polls are right

Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are on course for an absolute hammering if the polls are right

Comments 0 Comment

New @OpiniumResearch Con 45 (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LD 11 (+4) UKIP 9 (-5) Changes since last week. FW 19/20 Aprilhttps://t.co/JDBaJ9a0K2 — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 22, 2017 Since Theresa May announced the general election, we’ve had three polls, with leads of 21%, 24%, and now 19% for the blues. The trend is not Labour’s friend. We might need to come up with a new adjective for  just how rubbish Corbyn is. This poll presages an absolute shellacking for Labour. If…

Read More Read More

Being realistic on the prospects for Lib Dem gains

Being realistic on the prospects for Lib Dem gains

Comments 0 Comment

Alastair Meeks takes a hard look The Lib Dems’ emblem is the liberty bird.  In 2015, it was put on the critically endangered list, found only in eight locations where volunteers toiled night and day to protect it from poachers.  Pundits, including me, gloomily pondered whether extinction was on the cards. It’s a compelling case study how climate change is not necessarily bad for everyone.  In the wake of Brexit, the Lib Dems have found a new purpose as the…

Read More Read More

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast on Theresa May’s snap election

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast on Theresa May’s snap election

Comments 0 Comment

With a snap general election announced, Leo Barasi is joined by Progress deputy editor Conor Pope, and political consultant Laurence Janta-Lipinski, to talk about the state of the parties and the race ahead. The Tories seem to be on course for a guaranteed landslide but does that mean they won’t be able to scare potential voters about a Corbyn government? What policies and arguments can Labour offer to fight back? How far can the Lib Dems go? And is it…

Read More Read More

Tories take a 24% lead with YouGov. Can they poll 50% and above?

Tories take a 24% lead with YouGov. Can they poll 50% and above?

Comments 0 Comment

EXC: Tonight Tories on 48% in the first YouGov poll taken since Theresa May called election – highest since May 2008 pic.twitter.com/awaKs7V0Yv — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) April 19, 2017 What that @YouGov poll would look like at a general election. Tory majority of 186 pic.twitter.com/bRqvp6qmIx — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 19, 2017 As Labour head for the mother and father of all shellackings, if Corbyn had any honour or love for Labour he’d stand down now but INDEPENDENT DIGITAL Revealed:…

Read More Read More

No one knows anything. What to do if/when Mrs May wins today’s vote

No one knows anything. What to do if/when Mrs May wins today’s vote

Comments 0 Comment

In 2011, Ruth Ellen Brosseau was a bartender in Ottawa, Canada’s capital.  Some of her regulars were political activists for the New Democratic Party and when the federal election was looming, they twisted her arm to stand as a paper candidate in a no-hoper constituency in a heavily French-speaking area of Quebec.  She didn’t campaign (just as well, since her French wasn’t very good), she didn’t even visit the constituency.  During the election campaign she went on holiday in Vegas….

Read More Read More

Looks like Mike Smithson was right about his theory about the reasons for an early general election

Looks like Mike Smithson was right about his theory about the reasons for an early general election

Comments 0 Comment

BREAKING: The CPS have told Channel 4 News tonight that they are considering charges against more than 30 individuals. #electionexpenses — alex thomson (@alextomo) April 18, 2017 Charges during the election campaign could damage the Tories and Mrs May. Note: 30 individuals might not mean 30 MPs, it might mean 15 MPs and 15 agents TSE