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Tonight’s polling round up and why Corbyn doesn’t have Labour’s best interests at heart

Tonight’s polling round up and why Corbyn doesn’t have Labour’s best interests at heart

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New @ORB_Int poll for The Sunday Telegraph Con 46 (+4) Lab 31 (nc) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 8 (nc) https://t.co/zkP1tzQcEc — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 6, 2017 Westminster voting intention: CON: 46% (-1)LAB: 30% (-)LDEM: 9% (+1)UKIP: 7% (-)GRN: 2% (-1) (via @OpiniumResearch / 02 – 03 May) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 6, 2017 Westminster voting intention: CON: 47% (-1)LAB: 28% (-1)LDEM: 11% (+1)UKIP: 6% (+1) (via YouGov) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 6, 2017 By @ShippersUnbound in tomorrow's @thesundaytimes….

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The future’s not orange. The Lib Dems look set to miss out

The future’s not orange. The Lib Dems look set to miss out

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Embed from Getty Images Pedants are quick to point out that for Labour to be decimated at the next election, they would need to lose only one in ten seats, while current polling shows them doing far worse than this. So in the interests of accuracy, I record that on 8 June I expect to see Labour crushed, marmalised and eviscerated.  With the Conservatives having established close to a two power standard in most of the polling, we can expect…

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The death of populism?

The death of populism?

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Embed from Getty Images As the outcome of round 1 of France’s Presidential election became clear, the relief in the rest of Europe was palpable.  The French were not going to follow the perfidious British and vulgar Americans and vote in as their leader a populist promising to epater the European bourgeoisie.  Europe was safe.  Populism would remain a miserable Anglo-Saxon affair and much good would it do them. Perhaps.  But maybe there are rather more continuities between the US…

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Corbyn to quit or not to quit on June 9th, that is the question

Corbyn to quit or not to quit on June 9th, that is the question

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O, I die, Horatio; The potent poison quite o’er-crows my spirit: I cannot live to hear the news from England; But I do prophesy the election lights On Fortinbras: he has my dying voice; So tell him, with the occurrents, more and less, Which have solicited. The rest is silence.  – Hamlet Act V, Scene II William Hill have a market up on whether Jeremy Corbyn will announce his resignation before 11pm on June 9th. Whilst it might sound like…

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Caught in the backwash. The SNP subsides and the Conservatives surge

Caught in the backwash. The SNP subsides and the Conservatives surge

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Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks who accurately predicted the SNP tsunami of 2015 looks at the best Scottish seat bets In 2010, not a single seat in Scotland changed hands.  Electoral politics north of the border has got a bit more dynamic since then.  2017 will not be as wild as 2015 but the polls suggest a fair amount of movement. The SNP already have 56 out of the 59 seats that they compete in, so their room for…

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Why the Tory lead might be even larger than the polling implies

Why the Tory lead might be even larger than the polling implies

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  Lab & Lib Dem vote is a lot softer than the Con vote @IpsosMORI poll finds implying an even larger Con majority than we think might happen? pic.twitter.com/PDHa8BVsGg — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 28, 2017 The Labour and Lib Dem vote is substantially softer than the Tory vote In this month’s Ipsos MORI poll it found that the Labour and Lib Dem vote is softer than the Tory party vote, this came as a surprise to me.  One of the reasons…

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Riding the surge. Betting on a Conservative landslide

Riding the surge. Betting on a Conservative landslide

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If the polls are to be believed, the Conservatives are in for a spectacular night on 8 June.  ICM, YouGov and ComRes are all reporting national leads of more than 20% for the Conservatives – YouGov and ICM three times in the last week.  Labour seem in disarray, with the gaffes and questionable decisions coming in fast and thick.  Their morale is on the floor, with Labour MPs openly refusing to endorse Jeremy Corbyn for next Prime Minister.  There is…

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Exit poll says Macron and Le Pen make it into round two.

Exit poll says Macron and Le Pen make it into round two.

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?? #Presidentielle2017 ? Estimation Ipsos / @SopraSteria_fr à 20h du classement des candidats lors de ce premier tour pic.twitter.com/o6T4qBMGSq — Ipsos France (@IpsosFrance) April 23, 2017 Looks like the French have lost that lovin’ Fillon But given that both François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are fewer than 2 points behind Le Pen, and we’ve not had any votes counted yet, don’t start spending winnings yet or write off those losses. Though if this exit poll is accurate I expect Macron to win…

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