Popular policies might be the explanation for Labour’s increase in the polls since the start of the campaign At the start of this general election campaign, I thought there was a chance that my 10/1 bets on Labour polling sub 20% might be in play but during this general election campaign if the polls are accurate, Labour’s share of the vote has risen, and Labour might end up polling close to 40%. Now there’s much discussion about what is driving up…
Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will win a majority Despite all the light and heat generated with recent polling, I still expect the Tories to win a majority, unless Nick Timothy decides to add another Nimitz class sized barnacle to the Tory boat between now and June 8th The Tories still lead in the polls, the leadership and economic polling also favour the blue team, but the size of the majority will determine how her…
Tonight's @YouGov @thesundaytimes poll Con 43 (nc) Lab 36 (-2) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 4 (nc) Via @ShippersUnbound pic.twitter.com/NkUZm20Z2d — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2017 Looks like women are behind the Corbyn surge in @ORB_Int poll. Fieldwork Wed and Thurs https://t.co/nnoHIskTIM pic.twitter.com/MP2w59QJAK — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2017 Well if these polls turn out be accurate then Mrs May’s gamble to hold an early election will turn out be a mistake. What will keep Mrs May and CCHQ happy is…
The @OpiniumResearch poll Con 45 (-1) Lab 35 (+2) LD 7 (-1) UKIP 5 (nc) Look at the leader ratings. FW Tues/Wed https://t.co/OKZIp0G1Q6 pic.twitter.com/JnPsr7bx5J — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2017 Con 12-pt lead @ComRes for @Independent & @TheSundayMirrorCon 46% -2Lab 34% +4LD 8% -2UKIP 5% 0Green 2% -1(Changes since 2 weeks ago) — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) May 27, 2017 Corbyn leads by 23 points on best to protect old people who need social care @ComRes for @Independent https://t.co/XuXHxV9ZUf — John…
The wheels have come off the wagon for Team Theresa. Just two weeks ago the blue team’s lead looked more fearsome than the north face of the Eiger. Theresa May looked to be cruising to victory and the saboteurs were on track to be crushed. The stocks were sold; the press was squared: the middle class was quite prepared. But the middle class were emphatically not prepared for the Tories’ social care policy, which seems to have gone down like…
The appalling events of Monday evening are dominating the election campaign. Young children and teenagers should be able to attend a pop concert without fear of being killed. I struggle to understand the mind of a man that can choose to inflict so much pain and suffering on so many young people and their families. Feelings are understandably running high: grief, anger, outrage and despair are mingled. Security is a primal concern. The knowledge that there are people who walk…
Embed from Getty Images General elections aren’t usually about big ideas. They’re usually occasions for the parties to try to come up with visual representations of their opponents that sting, for frenetic arguments about trivial events and for their leaders to pose in unlikely photo-opportunities. Voters are expected to react, not to think. So Conservative supporters have reacted with trepidation to the focus on their plans for long term care. This was not an afterthought but a flagship policy, mentioned…
Wikipedia GE2017 poll chart All the mood music is pointing one way. Both Labour and Conservative sources suggest a meltdown in Labour’s heartlands. The Conservatives have put out rumours that they are trying to take seats such as Leeds East, West Bromwich East and Bolsover. If they were to succeed, Labour would be reduced to a rump. Conventional wisdom has it that the Conservatives are hoovering up the UKIP vote in Labour heartlands and taking a fair chunk of Labour…