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Author: TSE

GE2017 heralds the return of two party politics

GE2017 heralds the return of two party politics

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Alastair Meeks looks at the betting implications What to make of the polling?  Are the Conservatives out of sight or are we in hung Parliament territory?  Everyone has their own theory and many of them are contradictory.  I’m not proposing in this thread to go into the question of whether the young or previous non-voters are going to unleash a crimson tide.  This is fast becoming a question of theology rather than psephology, at least until Thursday. There are other…

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The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

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Comparing May's lead over Corbyn with @IpsosMORI's net satisfaction ratings compare with Cameron's lead over EdM 1 week before the election pic.twitter.com/Qn8CVeQQUE — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2017 Mrs May has picked the worst time for her ratings to crater With polls ranging from a Tory lead of 1% to 12%, and recent polling failures, it is wise to look at the various satisfaction/well/badly leadership ratings  because they (coupled with best/most trusted on the economy) have consistently predicted the winner…

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Whilst it is understandable national campaigning has been suspended, the general election must not be suspended

Whilst it is understandable national campaigning has been suspended, the general election must not be suspended

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May spokesmn: "Conservative party will not be campaigning nationally today. We will review as day goes on &as more details of attack emerge" — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) June 4, 2017 Calls for General Election to be suspended after second major terror attack within two weeks #LondonAttack https://t.co/fn6mDPuhqU — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 4, 2017 After last night’s appalling attack in London, the Tories and the SNP have suspended their national campaigns, and the other parties are set to follow suit,…

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Why Theresa May will be hoping for another polling industry failure on June 8th

Why Theresa May will be hoping for another polling industry failure on June 8th

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If there is another polling failure Theresa May can argue she didn’t blow a 25% lead against Corbyn because such a lead never existed. Looking at that chart above, it makes for unpleasant reading if you’re a Tory. Pretty much with every pollster that has consistently polled during this election campaign, the  Tory lead has shrunk a lot. Success equals performance minus anticipation. At the start of the campaign the polls indicated Labour were in for such a shellacking that…

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What if this latest from YouGov proves to be correct?

What if this latest from YouGov proves to be correct?

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Alastair Meeks looks at the possibilities & the bets All the sensible people had decided.  The Conservatives’ epic leads of the early part of the election campaign may have dissipated in part, but they remained set for a hefty overall majority. Then YouGov published their first seat-by-seat estimates, which to the consternation of many showed a hung Parliament. The reaction of far too many has been that this cannot possibly be right.  Even before YouGov’s analysis came out, I explained…

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On the day ICM gave the Tories a 12% lead, YouGov analysis has the Tories losing their majority

On the day ICM gave the Tories a 12% lead, YouGov analysis has the Tories losing their majority

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The front page of The Times made me say a phrase that rhymes with 'clucking bell' pic.twitter.com/p6f9QtQfZc — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2017 Tonight: we reveal YouGov's first seat by seat projection of the campaign – suggests Tories fall 16 seats short of overall majority pic.twitter.com/8ouPRHTZ7m — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) May 30, 2017 Tonight's YouGov data, which will be updated daily between now and polling day, based on complex model and 7,000 sample over 7 days pic.twitter.com/MzpXXifBFX — Sam…

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Youth and experience. Turnout among 18-24 year olds and past non-voters

Youth and experience. Turnout among 18-24 year olds and past non-voters

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  In the summer of 1969, I was not yet two years old.  The world watched in awe as Apollo 11 landed on the moon.  My parents sat me in front of the television set so that I could say in years to come that I had seen it.  Of course, I don’t remember it at all. I try to keep this piece of family nostalgia in mind when thinking about how the world looks to younger voters.  The youngest…

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Memo to the Labour party, stop sending Diane Abbott to do interviews for the rest of the campaign

Memo to the Labour party, stop sending Diane Abbott to do interviews for the rest of the campaign

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I’ve only just caught up with the quite literally hair raising interview with Diane Abbott had on this morning’s The Andrew Marr show. If you can’t watch the video above here’s an excerpt from The Spectator. When Marr moved onto Abbott’s questionable views on the IRA, she came up with an even more novel answer. Comparing her words of support for the IRA to her decision to have an afro, Abbott said her views — like her hair — have…

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