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Author: TSE

I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May doesn’t quit as PM a Tory MP will go all Leo Amery at her very soon

I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May doesn’t quit as PM a Tory MP will go all Leo Amery at her very soon

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Reported if Theresa May doesn't get a majority she will step down … it depends by how much … if not a large margin she'll stay for a bit — Zora Suleman (@ZoraSuleman) June 9, 2017 With Brexit negotiations starting in 10 days time, Tories will have to go all magic circle/coronation for Theresa May's replacement, — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2017 Two results that sum up the awfulness of the results in England for the Tories pic.twitter.com/OybdkpjS4W — TSE…

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It looks like Mrs May’s UKIP firewall was as good a defence as the Maginot Line

It looks like Mrs May’s UKIP firewall was as good a defence as the Maginot Line

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#GE2017: Bury North:Lab: 53.6% (+12.5)Con: 44.5% (+2.5)LDem: 1.9% (-0.2) pic.twitter.com/skBkQypyHR — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 9, 2017 Labour expecting to take Glasgow North, Cardiff North, Morley & Outwood and Gower. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 9, 2017 Though the blame should be focused on Mrs May and Nick ‘Labour sleeper agent’ Timothy #GE2017: Battersea:Lab: 45.9% (+9.1)Con: 41.5% (-10.8)LDem: 8.0% (+3.6)Ind: 2.2% (+2.3)Grn: 1.6% (-1.7)UKIP: 0.6% (-2.5) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 9, 2017 Recounts likely in Hastings & Rye and…

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If you’re not mentally prepared for Corbyn as Prime Minister, then you should be.

If you’re not mentally prepared for Corbyn as Prime Minister, then you should be.

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If you're not mentally prepared for Corbyn as PM after the election then you should be. pic.twitter.com/x2cwzjnDPh — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2017 So far this is utter vindication for Corbyn's approach to article 50 — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2017 Labour HOLD Wrexham.Tories were hoping to take this. pic.twitter.com/cOfRzPxNIX — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 9, 2017 #GE2017: Wrexham:Lab: 48.9% (+11.7)Con: 43.7% (+12.0)PC: 5.0% (-2.6)LDem: 2.4% (-2.9)No UKIP. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 9, 2017 Labour HOLD Darlington.Should have been…

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The Swindon North result presages a very poor night for the Tories

The Swindon North result presages a very poor night for the Tories

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#GE2017: North Swindon:Con: 53.6% (+3.3)Lab: 38.4% (+10.6)LDem: 3.6% (+0.3)UKIP: 2.8% (-12.5)Grn: 1.6% (-1.7) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 8, 2017 Swindon N worse for the Conservatives than the exit poll. This is all much more fun than I expected… — Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) June 8, 2017 Labour up 10 points in Swindon North – which Ed Balls points out wasn't in the top 100 target seats for Jeremy Corbyn — Steve Hawkes (@steve_hawkes) June 8, 2017 I've been told by…

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Calamity for May as exit poll shows the Tory majority wiped out

Calamity for May as exit poll shows the Tory majority wiped out

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Blimey. May oversees the wipeout of the Tory majority. Though the 2015 exit poll had the Tories on 316. pic.twitter.com/xlMlVcSwxu — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2017 Craig Oliver: "This is the biggest gamble a politician has taken for a long time and if the exit poll is right it will have failed." — Edward Malnick (@malnick) June 8, 2017 The exit poll only needs to be slightly wrong for Corbyn to be PM, — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2017 No…

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Your essential Thursday evening companion. AndyJS’s general election spreadsheet

Your essential Thursday evening companion. AndyJS’s general election spreadsheet

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Regular political betting readers will remember with much affection (and well-upholstered bank accounts) the spreadsheet that AndyJS produced for the EU referendum, setting out the expected   For 2017, he has prepared a constituency by constituency summary in order of their declaration in 2015, with the 2010 and 2015 tallies for each party. Using this, we should be able to identify patterns and trends more quickly, given that declarations are likely in practice to be in a fairly similar approximate order…

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Breaking the chain. Can the Lib Dems defy history?

Breaking the chain. Can the Lib Dems defy history?

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The opinion polls have obscured the view of what’s happening in the election rather than clarifying it.  But bettors remain convinced of the following: The Conservatives are going to do better than most of the polling would suggest on an application of uniform national swing. The under/over line is set with Ladbrokes at 360.5, while the recent Opinium poll (which is fairly mainstream) would imply 349 seats. Labour are going to do worse than most of the polling would suggest…

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All you need is Gove, Gove, Gove is all you need Mrs May

All you need is Gove, Gove, Gove is all you need Mrs May

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https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/870618761887453184 Mrs May needs not only a Willie, but also a Sir Keith Joseph If Mrs May wants to emulate the success of Mrs Thatcher, I’ve said before she needs a Willie,  but assuming Mrs May wins a majority on Thursday, what this campaign has exposed is that she needs better support and advisers, as ‘the vision thing’ is lacking, as exemplified by the disastrous announcement of the social care changes that led many opponents to characterise it as a…

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