Cyclefree on Blair, Cameron, May and Corbyn On Radio 4 Peter Hennessey has been interviewing politicians who are no longer in the front line and asking them to reflect on their careers, mistakes, and things they might have done differently. Blair does not regret Iraq, his view still being that it is better (for whom one wonders, surveying the state of Iraq these last 15 years) for Saddam to have been deposed. Perhaps politicians are not the best at analysing…
As Mike Smithson pointed out last week, these are fallow days for political betting. We have been spoiled in recent years with a nonstop cavalcade of elections, referendums and leadership contests. We are suffering withdrawal pangs. So far this summer, only UKIP have given us a full-blown leadership election. (The Lib Dems let us down by having a walkover.) Interest in this election, as in the party itself this year, has been minimal. With UKIP leadership elections being so frequent,…
Alastair Meeks on the similarities with 1914 The biggest avoidable catastrophe of the twentieth century was the outbreak of the First World War. A single act of terrorism emanating from a small pre-modern state was allowed by mishandling by several different nations to escalate into a war that devastated a continent. Historians continue to argue to this day about the causes. It is often observed that the Russian mobilisation plans entailed rigid planning. The steps that the Russians took that…
One in five of Labour’s current MPs did not serve in the last Parliament. With more than 50 new MPs, the new crop is going to make a big difference to Labour’s political balance. So what does it look like? As with the new Conservatives, many of the new Labour MPs have been assiduous in tidying up their online presence. It’s only human to wonder what indiscretions lurk among the deleted tweets. I expect we’ll find out in due course. …
2017 election saw the biggest swing DURING an election campaign ever – uncertainty is the new normal pic.twitter.com/VVTCADtY0T — Ben Page (@benatipsos) July 13, 2017 One of the axioms of British politics is that general election campaigns don’t matter, and the stats in the above chart by Ben Page of Ipsos MORI does back that up, with sub margin of error changes during past campaigns but the 2017 general election campaign really didn’t stick to past conventions. The question was…
YouGov have released some findings on why people voted Tory or Labour at the general election. After the Tory manifesto that was designed to annoy and upset every voter in the country it’s not surprising that Labour’s policies/manifestos scores higher than the Tories. What I find intriguing is how many people voted against Corbyn (both in absolute numbers and relative to Theresa May) which should alarm the Tories. If Labour are led by someone who isn’t quite so polarising…
Allies of David Davis are claiming that Philip May wants his wife to stand down. May friends say it's a "black ops and untrue". Getting ugly — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) July 15, 2017 David Davis branded Boris Johnson "a failure" and "toxic to his own sister" when the met at Spectator party. See Sunday Times — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) July 15, 2017 Key Johnson and Davis acolytes threatened to kick each other in the bollocks last week. See my big…
So Andrea Leadsom might be keeping Mrs May in her job. https://t.co/61uAjuIJNx pic.twitter.com/1Z9HNwBYGV — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 15, 2017 For the second year running Andrea Leadsom is ensuring Theresa May is Prime Minister. Last night I observed the unofficial Tory leadership contest is increasing in its tempo and activity, today The Financial Times have more information on it. Some speculate Mr Davis might be given a “coronation” as the leadership candidate best placed to deliver Brexit, but few Tory MPs…