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Author: TSE

Theresa May is set to conduct a major reshuffle in January, but will she end up causing even more problems for herself?

Theresa May is set to conduct a major reshuffle in January, but will she end up causing even more problems for herself?

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Great for @ShippersUnbound to have such an informed reshuffle piece, but aides briefing on reshuffles causes mayhem – angry ministers start demanding private reassurances and counter-briefing begins. Soon someone asks: are sure we *really* want to do this? pic.twitter.com/E9f99pWHJ5 — Craig Oliver (@CraigOliver100) December 31, 2017 Five more malcontents on the backbenches might be a mistake. Both The Sunday Times and The Sun on Sunday have stories about Mrs May planning to conduct an extensive reshuffle in January. This is…

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Three tips on who might be Theresa May’s successor

Three tips on who might be Theresa May’s successor

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A few days before Christmas I had lunch with a friend who has followed the Tory party for decades and knows it quite well. Inevitability the conversation turned on who might be Mrs May’s successor, their observations had a quite the impact and led to an update to my betting portfolio. My friend and I are of the consensus that if Mrs May survives into 2020 then her successor is likely to be someone who is currently not in the…

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The challenges facing the Conservatives

The challenges facing the Conservatives

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The Conservatives are in power and in disarray.  They possess a will to power but no common view on what to do with it.  For now the bulk of the party is intent on pursuing Brexit to its bitter conclusion.  But what then?  What indeed.  For the Conservative coalition has been turned upside down. Charles gave a crisp summary a couple of weeks ago of the three Conservative tribes. All three have abandoned their usual stances in the face of…

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Alastair Meeks and his predictions for 2018

Alastair Meeks and his predictions for 2018

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I broke my habit of recent years last year and didn’t make any predictions for the coming year (I had no time at the end of last year).  That was fortunate because I would have got almost everything wrong.  However, it is a good discipline to make these predictions if only so that I can identify what I thought was going on and think about why I was wrong (or right) later on.  That way I might actually get better….

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Reviewing 2017: The polling that made me think 53% of the electorate should be denied the vote

Reviewing 2017: The polling that made me think 53% of the electorate should be denied the vote

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The UK seems divided on the major issues. Reviewing the polling of 2017 I thought I’d focus on the polling that shocked me the most in 2017. Forget Mrs May’s collapsing ratings during the election campaign, a dash for the cliff that would have left lemmings panting for breath, it was the polling by YouGov in February that showed 53% of the public like pineapple on pizza. The polling was commissioned after ‘Guðni Th. Jóhannesson, the president of Iceland (the…

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Three Tribes Go To War – the historical divides within the Tory Party

Three Tribes Go To War – the historical divides within the Tory Party

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Charles on the various tribes of the Tory Party “I support this measure as a measure of reform; but I support it still more as a measure of conservation … the voice of great events is proclaiming to us, “Reform, that you may preserve” Three years before the Tamworth Manifesto, Macaulay’s speech on the Reform Bill prefigures the Conservative party’s core philosophy. Peel’s pledge to ensure “the correction of proved abuses and the redress of real grievances” while resisting unnecessary…

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Making Amber Rudd Tory Leader & Prime Minister might be the only way to ensure she holds her seat.

Making Amber Rudd Tory Leader & Prime Minister might be the only way to ensure she holds her seat.

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Every Tory leader since WWII has increased the Tory share of the vote in their constituency in their first general election as leader except Mrs May It appears Amber Rudd’s majority of 346 in Hastings & Rye is seen as a bar on her being Theresa May’s successor as some Tories don’t want the symbolic moment of the next general election to be the Tory PM losing their seat. Nor do they want their leader spending most of the campaign…

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