Hungary is the holding pen of Europe. Sat on the Great Hungarian Plain, which is effectively the most westward of the steppes, it is no coincidence that successive invasions over many eras have come through Hungary and stopped at Vienna, from the Mongols to the Turks to the waves of migrants in 2015 – it is the line of least resistance. The last hundred years have not been good for Hungary. It lost two thirds of its territory at the…
As a new YouGov poll shows the Tories 4 points ahead, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the untold story of the recent Conservative resurgence in the polls and ask what is behind it and does it matter? Catching up on recent events, Keiran and Leo also discuss the Salisbury attack and delve into recent polling around its aftermath and Russia. Keiran explains why he thinks this story might be cutting through politically beyond the usual Westminster bubble chatter. Keiran…
Imagine, if you will, that you are a horse. Take that extra step and imagine that you’re a horse capable of reasoning, a Houyhnhnm if you will. As you stand in your stable at the end of the day, imagine you are reflecting on your species’ relationship with humans. It got off to a poor start, with humans seeing you as a food source. Fortunately, humans in general saw greater possibilities in you, learning that you could be a far…
Are Labour’s hopes to take Barnet going to get trimmed? London was horrific for the Tories in last year’s general election, seats like Tooting which were a Tory target saw Labour win with a majority of over fifteen thousand. In Battersea, where there was a near eight thousand Tory majority became a Labour gain. Overall there was a Tory to Labour swing of 6.3% in London, which was three times the 2.1% swing in Great Britain as a whole. With…
I suspect FPTP will stop this from happening. https://t.co/DYqNOdGvsl pic.twitter.com/34N2QPGk9G — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 18, 2018 That and the fact that they've failed to split away about 5 times already. — Martin Hoscik (@MartinHoscik) March 18, 2018 Today’s Sunday Times report Senior Labour MPs appalled by Jeremy Corbyn’s performance over the Salisbury poisoning have been in secret talks with the Liberal Democrats and at least one Conservative MP about forming a new political party called Start Again. Plans for a…
A Brexit deal that separates the Six Counties from the rest of the UK could rupture the DUP and Tory alliance for years. Over the last few years many observers on politics, myself included, have made assumptions that turned out be very wrong. Lib Dem incumbency would save them from a catastrophic seat loss in 2015, the electorate wouldn’t vote to make themselves poorer by Leaving the European Union, and Jeremy Corbyn’s backstory & a divided Labour party would see…
Mansfield, Kensington, Canterbury and Stoke-on-Trent South: when political commentators wanted to demonstrate the weird and conflicting swings that took place at the last general election, that quartet’s names kept being brought up. That’s all well and good, but there has been surprisingly little interest in the broader picture. So I have taken the time to put together a map of the swings in Britain, which you can see above. It is interactive, so you can zoom in on specific areas…
The deal with North Korea is very much in the making and will be, if completed, a very good one for the World. Time and place to be determined. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 10, 2018 Will Trump have his Nixon in China moment? Following the news about the summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un Ladbrokes have a market up on the location of the summit. It is well noted that Kim Jong-un is very paranoid, particularly about his own…