Looming over the back of all the sound and fury of our day to day politics is the inexorable approach of Brexit day. The 29th of March 2019 will be the day when something happens, maybe. We will start an orderly transition to somewhere, or an abrupt and disorderly crunch into somewhere else. There will be some kind of Brexit that might happen, whether it’s hard or soft (my personal bet is on squidgy). Unless we get an extension, which…
On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the levels of public support for a no-deal Brexit and how that may factor into decisions in Westminster. Also on the podcast, the duo look at polling on support for the far-right and other potential new parties by YouGov as well as public support for the death penalty in light of Sajid Javid’s decision not to seek assurances that suspected British Jihadis will not face…
Here's the polling for the primary populist right party in 15 western European countries from 2005 to June 2018 (part of upcoming paper by @AndrewPGeddes and me). Draw your own conclusions ? pic.twitter.com/1eqS9bF2wr — James Dennison (@JamesRDennison) July 19, 2018 I am one of the 42% @YouGov https://t.co/2Z42Y06TFv pic.twitter.com/9zPH35Skgr — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) July 23, 2018 A spectre is haunting Europe: the spectre of populism. All the powers of old Europe has entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this…
Corporeal wonders just what we’ve done to deserve our current political situation. History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce. Then after that, and if we are being punished for some serious crimes committed in a previous life, it descends into whatever this is. I’ve been trying to crowbar an article around a Groundhog day analogy, since every week recently has seemed so depressingly familiar. Theresa May has established herself (for lack of a worse word) as a career…
This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts. In part one, Keiran Pedley is joined by James Crouch of Opinium to discuss polling that shows Labour taking the lead as the Tory vote share falls. Keiran and James discuss why this is and whether the Tories could fall further still and what voters think of the concept of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. In part two, Keiran is joined by Asa Bennet of the Telegraph to discuss what’s…
On a special episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss a momentous 24 hours in Westminster that has seen both David Davis and Boris Johnson resign. Keiran and Leo ask what happens next and look at what polling of Tory members by YouGov tells us about the future direction of the Conservative Party and who might come to lead it. Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet
Reflections on the dramatic events When I was a child, we used to visit my maternal grandparents most Sundays. I learned my love of card games and Scrabble there, including the importance of seating: my grandpa would cheat to ensure my grandma won (she was a shocking loser and he knew which side his bread was buttered). Sunday tea was an institution, my grandma slipping Ben her fat golden Labrador little treats from her plate when she thought no one…
For the last year or so, one of my favourite betting markets has been the market on Betfair on whether Britain will leave the EU by 11pm on 29 March 2019. I wrote about it in February and it has been a market that I have returned to regularly over the intervening months. The price on Yes, Britain will officially leave by that date has shortened considerably since February and as I write last traded at 1.83. I still think…