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Author: TSE

We need to talk about Brandon Lewis

We need to talk about Brandon Lewis

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The fallout from Boris Johnson’s insults towards women who wear the burqa and niqab might end up putting the kibosh on his leadership ambitions it may also end up being sub-optimal for the prospects of Brandon Lewis. The Mail on Sunday report  When Mr Lewis called for the former Foreign Secretary to apologise for the remarks – forcing the Prime Minister to echo his call – he triggered a furious backlash from Mr Johnson’s supporters.  Their anger intensified when the…

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Betting on will there be a Tory leadership contest in 2018

Betting on will there be a Tory leadership contest in 2018

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Why I’m betting on no leadership contest in 2018. Paddy Power’s market on whether there will be a Tory leadership contest in 2018 intrigues me. I’ve confirmed with them the precise terms of this bet. A vote of no confidence being called will not be enough, what needs to happen is for either Mrs May to lose a vote of confidence or resign and the Chairman of the 1922 committee to start accepting nominations for Mrs May’s successor. After Chequers…

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Those whom the Gods wish to destroy. What happens next now that Britain has gone mad

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy. What happens next now that Britain has gone mad

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At Deltapoll, we asked Leave voters in Britain to choose between leaving the #EU and peace in #NorthernIreland. Nearly 6 out of 10 said the UK leaving the EU was more important. #Brexit pic.twitter.com/0FqMJAJZgN — Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman) July 31, 2018 So now we know.  A majority of Leavers are stark staring bonkers.  The signs had always been there: the swivel-eyed attacks on the judiciary as enemies of the people for giving judgment in a case, on the governor of…

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History suggests one of Philip Hammond, Jeremy Hunt, and Sajid Javid will be Theresa May’s successor if she goes before the next election

History suggests one of Philip Hammond, Jeremy Hunt, and Sajid Javid will be Theresa May’s successor if she goes before the next election

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On all seven occasions since World War II when parties have changed PM mid term the new PM has always been an incumbent of a great office of state. On three occasions the incumbent Foreign Secretary has taken over, Sir Anthony Eden succeeding Sir Winston Churchill in 1955, Alec Douglas-Home succeeding Harold MacMillan in 1963, and James Callaghan succeeding Harold Wilson in 1976. On three occasions the incumbent Chancellor of the Exchequer has taken over, in 1957 Harold MacMillan succeeding…

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Why I’m expecting Boris to fail in his bid to be Theresa May’s successor

Why I’m expecting Boris to fail in his bid to be Theresa May’s successor

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Picture: ConHome next Tory leader polling from December 2015 Following the recent ConHome polling Mike noted that Boris Johnson had once again become the favourite to be Theresa May’s successor but I’m going to explain why I’m continuing on laying Boris as next Tory leader/PM. 1) Polls are not immutable. Look at the picture atop this thread, back in December 2015 George Osborne had led the ConHome poll for a fifth successive month, polls are not static, they can rapidly…

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The limits of populism. Will the hard right disappoint its fans’ most ardent hopes again in Sweden?

The limits of populism. Will the hard right disappoint its fans’ most ardent hopes again in Sweden?

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https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1022595808003334144 Sweden has a general election on 9 September 2018.  You might have picked up on it because the newspapers have been drawing attention to the prospects of the Sweden Democrats as they are apparently rising in the polls.  For those that aren’t familiar with them, the Sweden Democrats are the descendant of the fascist movement but now looks like a fairly standard nationalist anti-immigration party.  Could such a party top the polls in a country famed for its social…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Are the public turning against Brexit and what do they think of communism?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Are the public turning against Brexit and what do they think of communism?

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This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into three parts. In part one: Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss this week’s Sky Data poll and look at the evidence for whether the public really are turning against Brexit or not and what this might mean for the debate in Westminster. In part two: Keiran and Leo look at some exclusive PB / Opinium polling on different political systems and ideologies. What do the public think about socialism and…

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The Brexit day party

The Brexit day party

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Looming over the back of all the sound and fury of our day to day politics is the inexorable approach of Brexit day. The 29th of March 2019 will be the day when something happens, maybe. We will start an orderly transition to somewhere, or an abrupt and disorderly crunch into somewhere else. There will be some kind of Brexit that might happen, whether it’s hard or soft (my personal bet is on squidgy). Unless we get an extension, which…

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