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Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling

Why you should be wary of hypothetical polling

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Please indulge me as I take a minute today to complain about poll questions that ask people whether they'd be more or less likely to vote for a candidate if the candidate did X thing. — Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 29, 2018 Things people are generally bad at:-explaining how they decide their votes-entertaining counterfactuals-understanding probability This asks them to do all three! — Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 29, 2018 But the even bigger problem is that people aren't going to…

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Cat meet pigeons

Cat meet pigeons

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Sunday TIMES: “May and Corbyn face double coup” #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/qD7n75C0Mj — Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) September 1, 2018 The best advice from an MP going into this autumn? “Buckle up.” The @ObserverUK Big read on the plotting, chaos and intrigue that lies ahead…https://t.co/FoTxZS9vAs pic.twitter.com/3bqD6p5vRZ — Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) September 2, 2018 Those hoping for a quiet Autumn on the politics front are set to be disappointed. Just when you thought politics couldn’t get any more exciting several newspapers are reporting…

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The affairs of state. How the personal can become very political indeed

The affairs of state. How the personal can become very political indeed

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Love him or loathe him, Alex Salmond is one of the towering political figures of the age.  He has taken the cause of Scottish independence from a fringe idea to one of the great themes of Scottish and indeed British politics.  With a ready wit and an unsurpassable sense of his own importance, he has assembled an army of Nats on and offline, all straining to be unyoked from the United Kingdom. This last week, Scottish politics has been convulsed…

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Is Ruth Davidson the new Alec Douglas-Home?

Is Ruth Davidson the new Alec Douglas-Home?

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Video: Excerpt from a January 2016 episode of Newsnight We’ve been here before, the best hope for the Tory party winning the next general election is a Scot that isn’t an MP and yet the Tory Party yet somehow engineers the situation for that non MP to become Tory leader & Prime Minister and an MP shortly thereafter. Today’s Sun newspaper reports RUTH Davidson has told friends she may move to Westminster to become a Cabinet minister as a stepping…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: How long will Trump last (and who will run against him)? Plus, how does public opinion on Brexit look ahead of party conference season?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: How long will Trump last (and who will run against him)? Plus, how does public opinion on Brexit look ahead of party conference season?

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Polling Matters returns for an extended episode exploring the latest goings-on in Washington DC and what a recent avalanche of Brexit related polling tells us about public opinion as we head into a crucial party conference season. In part one, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at Trump’s approval rating and what that says about his prospects for re-election and the GOP’s prospects in the upcoming midterms. Keiran and Leo also look in-depth at the potential Democratic candidates to face…

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When some men want to be humiliated and embarrassed they hire dominatrices whereas Nigel Farage is considering running for London Mayor

When some men want to be humiliated and embarrassed they hire dominatrices whereas Nigel Farage is considering running for London Mayor

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Nigel Farage considers running for London mayor https://t.co/zKaSNpDIpc — FT UK Politics (@ftukpolitics) August 30, 2018 The Financial Times are reporting Nigel Farage is weighing a bid to become mayor of London, in an attempt to push the Conservative party into third place in the British capital. Mr Farage, who lives in Bromley in south London, quit as leader of the UK Independence party in July 2016, weeks after the UK voted to leave the EU. He is still a…

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How the Labour Party would split – and why it won’t

How the Labour Party would split – and why it won’t

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A summer of conspiratorial meetings amongst serial rebels has fuelled talk of a split. Picture the scene. Lord Mandleson hosts a BBQ where “up to” 20 Labour rebels look at their options for a breakaway party. Labour’s Deputy Leader Tom Watson was amongst the group, uniting the remnant Blairite and Brownite camps against Corbyn. Whether plotting to adopt the IHRA definition against the NEC, or plotting to deliberately lose to spite Corbyn (Stephen Kinnock not being very good at this),…

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What happens next if not much happens?

What happens next if not much happens?

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Like the media, we are attracted to drama. What if Trump is impeached? What if No Deal Brexit leads to economic meltdown? What if both major parties split? What if the EU collapses? But what if none of that happens? The instinct of people in power is to avoid chaos on their watch if possible. Cans are kicked down the road. Fudge is prepared in industrial quantities. Suppose that rule applies here, specifically to Brexit. A deal is done in…

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