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Author: TSE

A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017

A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017

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The most recent GB wide opinion polls, as collated by Wikipedia. https://t.co/XJhbZIFOjo pic.twitter.com/PK3Ng1vZTl — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 13, 2018 History suggests assuming Kippers will strongly back the Tories when UKIP don’t stand is a mistake. Since the announcement of the Chequers deal in July UKIP have experienced a bit of a polling surge with some polls having them polling 7% and 8% but generally in the 4% to 6% range. I’m expecting UKIP at the next general election will repeat…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Scotland?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Scotland?

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by pollster Mark Diffley to deep dive on the latest round of polls in Scotland. Topics discussed include: 1) How support for Scottish independence has changed over time and the impact that Brexit could have 2) When the next Scottish Independence vote will happen 3) What’s going on in voting intention polls for Holyrood and Westminster and what this means for the main players north of the border…

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Victorious sponge. When competing freedoms clashed in a bakery

Victorious sponge. When competing freedoms clashed in a bakery

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UK supreme court backs bakery that refused to make gay wedding cake https://t.co/fEoUi7dyUH — The Guardian (@guardian) October 10, 2018 George Bernard Shaw is one of those writers, like Spenser, Milton and Dr Johnson, who is now much less read than known.  Nowadays all that most people know of him is My Fair Lady (ironically, he refused permission in his lifetime to allow Pygmalion to be adapted into a musical) and the odd quotation.  One of those quotations came to…

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Footing the bill. The challenges for freespending politicians

Footing the bill. The challenges for freespending politicians

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I like big buts and I cannot lie.  If I am presented with a rosy apple, I look for the worm.  If I’m covered with dark clouds, I look for the silver lining.  I’m that guy who likes to say “I think you’ll find it’s a bit more complicated than that”.  I’m unapologetic: it usually is more complicated than that. Sometimes, however, important simple truths are hiding in plain sight.  Hercule Poirot noted that on one occasion he could not…

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The end of the court of Sessions?

The end of the court of Sessions?

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Paddy Power have a market up which is one of my favourite types of market, will X be in their job or not by a certain. There are stories that Trump will be considering a few major changes to his cabinet after the mid terms, Defense [sic] Secretary Jim Mattis is one at risk but the person most at risk I think is Attorney General. I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November even if they don’t formally…

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If Boris Johnson is putting the CTF band together the last time they worked together he was massively overstated in the polls

If Boris Johnson is putting the CTF band together the last time they worked together he was massively overstated in the polls

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Don’t be seduced by massive Johnson leads. History suggests Boris isn’t as personally popular as the polls would have you believe. The Times reported earlier on this week that An aide to the campaigning guru Sir Lynton Crosby was seen at Boris Johnson’s home yesterday morning, hours before his conference rally. In the clearest sign yet of how closely the former foreign secretary is working with Sir Lynton’s company, Mimi Randolph, a staffer at CTF Partners, was pictured leaving his…

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The sum of all fears

The sum of all fears

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Nobody kicks a dead dog, Dale Carnegie noted.  Based on that observation, we can conclude two things from the Conservative party conference.  First, the government is very fearful that a fresh referendum is a runner.  And secondly, Boris Johnson remains a serious and potent threat.  Speaker after speaker at the Conservative party conference lined up to launch an attack on one or other of these. The Prime Minister is at the head of the queue.  She has gone out of…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Housing policy could decide the next General Election

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Housing policy could decide the next General Election

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh look at recent polling by Matt on behalf of Shelter and ask ‘what’s going on in the marginals’ and ‘How important is housing politically?’ Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @MattSingh_ Tweet