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NEW PB / Polling Matters: US midterms special (part three) with GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini

NEW PB / Polling Matters: US midterms special (part three) with GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini

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In the final part of our mini-series on the US midterms ahead of Tuesday’s vote Keiran talks to Patrick Ruffini from Echelon insights on the races to watch, the prospects for a Democratic wave and the likelihood of Trump winning re-election in 2020. Listen to the episode below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @PatrickRuffini Tweet PS if you have missed the other episodes in our mini-series we have interview Trump supporter and former White House Communications Director Anthony…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. US midterms special (part two) with Ariel Edwards-Levy

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. US midterms special (part two) with Ariel Edwards-Levy

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As part of the Polling Matters mini-series on the US midterms, Keiran Pedley talks to Ariel Edwards-Levy of The Huffington Post. Ariel and Keiran discuss the races to watch and the demographic shifts shaping US politics. They also look at Trump’s approval rating and what to look out for in 2020. You can listen to this episode below. Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @aedwardslevy Tweet PS – For those that missed it you can check out the thread…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Looking at the US Midterms with ex-White House Coms director Anthony Scaramucci

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Looking at the US Midterms with ex-White House Coms director Anthony Scaramucci

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This week PB / Polling Matters will unveil a series of special podcasts focusing on the US midterms. These podcasts will vary in content. Some will talk numbers with the pollsters and some will talk the issues behind the numbers with journalists and other political actors. The first in our series sees Keiran Pedley speak to Anthony Scaramucci. You can listen to the show below: Scaramucci is a leading Trump supporter, serving Trump in a variety of roles including an…

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Sales tacks. What to do with the high street holes caused by shop closures

Sales tacks. What to do with the high street holes caused by shop closures

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Debenhams, House of Fraser, Homebase and more – this is the grim story of the UK high street so far this yearhttps://t.co/UhZU4a9v0E — Manchester News MEN (@MENnewsdesk) October 25, 2018 This has been a torrid time for many retailers. Every week brings news of another familiar high street shop on the skids. House of Fraser, Toys R Us, Maplins, Poundworld and Gaucho have all gone bust. Many household name chains are closing stores at a rate of knots. Rumours abound of big names struggling. …

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The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen

The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen

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Viewcode looks at the detailed data The main elections on November 6th  are for 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, 36 out of 50 state/district Governors, and 3 out of 5 territory Governors. This is an attempt to summarise the predictors. The following figures were taken between 11pm BST October 27th and 3:30am BST (2:30am GMT) October 28th 2018. Nationwide generic ballot polls The United States is a large country with…

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The persistence of lack of memory. How the state retirement age was changed and communicated

The persistence of lack of memory. How the state retirement age was changed and communicated

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Old sins have long shadows. The equalisation of state pension age was first mooted in the early 1990s and was enacted in 1995. Yet it remains controversial now. The action group WASPI campaigned in the last general election and that campaign arguably made the difference in some marginals.  Theresa May might conceivably have got an overall majority if it had not been for their efforts and the whole course of Britain’s departure from the EU, among other things, might have been radically different….

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Angela’s Ashes. Germany throws its two party system on the bonfire

Angela’s Ashes. Germany throws its two party system on the bonfire

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The  German state of Hessen goes to the polls this  weekend.  Hessen has been something of a swing state between the CDU and SPD. The current state assembly has the CDU in power on 38% of the vote in a coalition with the Greens  who  won 11%. The SPD leads  the opposition with 31%. But all is not well. The large national parties are worried  by the shifting ground in German  politics. A look at recent polling shows why Both the CDU and SPD…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. How important is the economy in driving voting intention?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. How important is the economy in driving voting intention?

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the political lay of the land as we approach the budget, what the public think about the economy (and who they trust to run it) and how important the economy is in voting intention terms in a Brexit-dominated 2018. You can listen to the podcast below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet