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Author: TSE

Brexit: Not the End. Not the Beginning of the End. Perhaps, the End of the Beginning.

Brexit: Not the End. Not the Beginning of the End. Perhaps, the End of the Beginning.

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The UK’s relationship with the EU has never been cosy, and, as you may have noticed, it’s recently become incredibly contentious. Worse still, and regardless of what happens next, this is going to dominate politics in the UK for decades. The reason is simple. This is a matter of identity. Some fear being governed by foreigners, the nation losing control of its own democratic destiny. Some feel they’re having their rights taken away against their will. How do you bridge…

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New adventures in electoral systems. Approval voting

New adventures in electoral systems. Approval voting

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This is an intriguing experiment. The winner should be the candidate who most voters approve of. So it encourages centrism and hardliners to be flexible. https://t.co/nEORMKTA8T — Alastair Meeks (@AlastairMeeks) November 7, 2018 Settle down at the back, I can tell you’re getting overexcited. The midterm elections in the US have been endlessly pored over. One result, however, may have more far-reaching effects than most. Or not. Politics does not want for different voting systems. We have first past the post, the method used…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Trump and does the public now back Remain?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Trump and does the public now back Remain?

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look into the implications of this week’s mid-terms in the US and dissect data from Survation and Chris Hanretty suggesting that Brits would vote Remain if there was another referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. Elsewhere in the show, Leo looks at what polling tells us about the prospect of a Cameron comeback and Keiran criticises Momentum’s “consultation” of its members about Labour’s Brexit policy –…

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As the early votes are counted if we do see a blue wave young and non white voters will be behind it

As the early votes are counted if we do see a blue wave young and non white voters will be behind it

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So far, we’re seeing the highest non-white voter turnout ever for a midterm election.#ElectionNight#Midterms2018 https://t.co/Zw67LwhYxm — Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 7, 2018 Along with non-white voters, we’re also seeing the highest turnout of young voters (age 18-29) ever in a midterm election.#ElectionNight#Midterms2018 https://t.co/OhBWzSONE2 — Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 7, 2018 Nbc has called first house seat swapping hands – Virginia 10- believe Barbara comstock now out if they're right. #Midterms2018 — emily m (@maitlis) November 7, 2018 One of the…

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The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen, Part II

The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen, Part II

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Viewcode once again looks at the detailed data The midterms are for 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate, 36 out of 50 state Governors, and 3 out of 5 territory Governors. This is an attempt to summarise the predictors and is the successor to a similar article . The following figures were taken between 1am and 4am GMT November 6th 2018 NATIONWIDE GENERIC BALLOT POLLS A “generic ballot”…

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What price democracy? 

What price democracy? 

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In late 2018, as Britain wanders down the path marked Brexit, the route ahead still looks murky, thorny and pot-holed. The country is still divided almost equally between those who think Britain was right to vote Leave in 2016 and those who think it was a mistake. An increasing number of hardcore Remainers are calling for a second referendum, while many hardcore Leavers argue that would make the first referendum meaningless, undermining democracy.  So the question arises: is democracy a means or an end?  Let’s take an extreme example. Until sanctions bit in…

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Tuesday may see the biggest change to the electoral process in Florida since the Voting Rights Act of 1965

Tuesday may see the biggest change to the electoral process in Florida since the Voting Rights Act of 1965

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Video above: The WSJ’s take on Florida allowing felons to vote. On Tuesday Floridians will vote on whether to allow one and a half millions felons the right to vote, the polling shows that it is likely the voters will back restoration of voting rights for felons. Several respected observers have said felons being allowed to vote might have no impact in the results in the sunshine state, although some say it will benefit the Democrats, some say it may…

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Alastair Meeks reviews the next Labour leader betting

Alastair Meeks reviews the next Labour leader betting

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  Whenever I want something sensational to read, I look at my Betfair account.  It’s not always sensationally good, but there’s always something to consider.  The markets I usually end up checking out are the long term ones: next Prime Minister, next Conservative leader and next Labour leader in particular.  These three markets have much in common and indeed overlap heavily: the next Prime Minister is likely to be one of Jeremy Corbyn, the next Conservative leader and the next…

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