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Next week could see Bercexit if some Tory Leavers have their way

Next week could see Bercexit if some Tory Leavers have their way

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Brexit: Tories push to unseat ‘biased’ Speaker Bercow.https://t.co/QG9agkORvI pic.twitter.com/K86nRxoXJT — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 18, 2019 Tory Leavers might be about to make the same mistake with Bercow that they made with Mrs May last December. In today’s Times there’s this story Conservative MPs are to launch a further attempt to prise John Bercow from office amid anger over what they claim is the Speaker’s bias against Brexit. The backbencher behind the move, who says it has support from the government…

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Plunging opinion polls are not the Conservatives’ biggest problem

Plunging opinion polls are not the Conservatives’ biggest problem

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Memo to Conservative Party: Since March 29th you've averaged just 32.6%This is Michael Howard 2005 territoryYou've lost 9 pts in a yearYou're losing Leavers; support down 12 points in 5 monthsUKIP+Brexit Party have doubled in 3 months to 11% These numbers = PM Jeremy Corbyn — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) April 15, 2019 Alice was introduced to the concept of an unbirthday party at the Mad Hatter’s Tea Party. By close analogy, let me introduce you to the concept of an…

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Why I’m taking the 12/1 on the Tories polling under 10% in the European election

Why I’m taking the 12/1 on the Tories polling under 10% in the European election

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The YouGov poll published yesterday showed the Conservatives polling 16% in the European election, Opinium had the Conservatives on 17% so it is worth analysing this market from Ladbrokes on what vote share the Conservatives will achieve. I’ll explain why I think the 12/1 is the best option. I) A polarised electorate and polarising election. This election will be seen as a de facto referendum on Brexit, Remainers and Leavers will want to utilise their vote to send a message on Brexit….

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Trick or Treat? Reports that Brexit day moved to Halloween as the French surrender

Trick or Treat? Reports that Brexit day moved to Halloween as the French surrender

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BREAKING: EU leaders have agreed a delay to Brexit until 31 October, with a review in June, according to EU diplomats. Follow live updates here: https://t.co/iRW5ZC1LSF — Alan McGuinness (@Alan_McGuinness) April 10, 2019 Earlier on this evening it looked like the French were going to ensure a No Deal Brexit on Friday but the rest of the EU bypassed them like the Germans bypassed the Maginot Line in 1940. https://t.co/Y2xCxlceG4 — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 10, 2019 Per EU source. France…

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Divided they fall. Alastair Meeks on the European elections

Divided they fall. Alastair Meeks on the European elections

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The 2019 Euro elections – not a contest I thought was going to require a British perspective. Yet here we are, taking at least one more curtain call. Last time Britain elected MEPs in the following numbers: UKIP 24 Labour 20 Conservatives 19 Green 3 SNP 2 Lib Dems 1 Plaid Cymru 1 DUP 1 Sinn Fein 1 UUP 1 UKIP tallied 26.6% of the vote to take first place on a turnout of just under 36%. It should be…

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D’Hondt You Want MEPs? Who will win the most European Parliament seats in the United Kingdom?

D’Hondt You Want MEPs? Who will win the most European Parliament seats in the United Kingdom?

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This market by Ladbrokes is very intriguing, because as if seems likely, the UK takes part in the European elections there’s going to be quite a few betting opportunities. I don’t think Labour or the Tories should be the favourite for this market, the latest poll from YouGov shows why the Tories and Labour aren’t really loved and led by unloved leaders. The don’t know/won’t say alliance now has more support than the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition…

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Selling time. What passes for Theresa May’s strategy

Selling time. What passes for Theresa May’s strategy

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Picture credit: Sunil Prasannan We spend all our lives buying and selling time. We sell our time to employers. We trade time for convenience when deciding where we live and what we are prepared to pay for that. Oddly, we talk of buying time but we never talk of selling time, even though we do both. This is a gap in the English language. For the last few months that has been all that Theresa May has been doing. After Theresa…

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The chaos continues as MPs reject all Brexit options

The chaos continues as MPs reject all Brexit options

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No option passes in Commons votes Results here: https://t.co/7R7Ty34J5g — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) April 1, 2019 Basically, it's May's deal, No Deal or General Election. — Theo Usherwood (@theousherwood) April 1, 2019 You get the feeling Parliament couldn't organise a farting contest in a baked bean factory. https://t.co/ueCaoZuEAy — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 1, 2019 https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1112826601308385280 So tonight we’ve seen Steve Baker on verge of tears about rebelling against party, Nick Boles similarly emotional as he quits party; others facing…

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