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The next Home Secretary betting

The next Home Secretary betting

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Within a fortnight we should have a new Home Secretary. When Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister it is widely expected that his Chancellor will be Sajid Javid which creates a vacancy at the Home Office. So who will succeed Javid? I’m also working on assumption that Jeremy Hunt will remain Foreign Secretary under Boris Johnson, he views any other cabinet job, other than Chancellor of the Exchequer as a demotion so he’d retire to the backbenches. Boris Johnson will not…

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Sounding the alarm. Britain’s democracy is under direct threat

Sounding the alarm. Britain’s democracy is under direct threat

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In two weeks’ time, Britain will have a Prime Minister whose commitment to democracy is contingent. Boris Johnson has repeatedly refused to rule out proroguing Parliament in order to secure a no deal Brexit by 31 October 2019. Let us call proroguing Parliament by its proper name: suspending democracy. The United Kingdom operates with an executive that is supervised by the legislature. If the executive suspends the legislature (which is what proroguing is), it is suspending the democratic control of…

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The Midas touch. Living in a world of abundant knowledge

The Midas touch. Living in a world of abundant knowledge

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In the middle ages, Timbuktu was fabulously wealthy. It controlled the gold trade and it had all the riches that you would expect from that. Mansa Musa, the sultan, had a fortune that you couldn’t dream away, you couldn’t wish away.   The sultan, as a good Muslim, performed the hajj, making the pilgrimage to Mecca. Being fabulously wealthy as well as a good Muslim, he travelled with a retinue of 60,000 men. All along the way, he gave gold to…

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A 16/1 tip to start off your Sunday morning

A 16/1 tip to start off your Sunday morning

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Graphics: top one is from Paddy Power, the bottom one is from Ladbrokes Why I’m backing Boris Johnson to receive between 80% to 89.99% of the vote. If the YouGov polling is accurate then Boris Johnson is going to win a landslide in the leadership contest, yesterday’s poll had him winning 74% to 26%. My view is that polling for these leadership elections is a lot easier for YouGov than most of the other political polling they carry out. The…

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If Boris Johnson tries to deliver on his promise of a no deal Brexit on Halloween then a parliamentary vote of no confidence seems inevitable

If Boris Johnson tries to deliver on his promise of a no deal Brexit on Halloween then a parliamentary vote of no confidence seems inevitable

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‘Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’ I suspect many MPs are also guided by the latter maxim. If Boris Johnson does attempt to take the country out of the EU without a deal (and in contradiction to his claims during the 2016 referendum campaign) then I expect…

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The looming fork in the road and the path many MPs will have to make

The looming fork in the road and the path many MPs will have to make

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You need to watch politics in split-screen at the moment. In both Labour and the Conservatives, a group of politicians has come to a fork in the road. In both cases, there is no shortage of fellow party supporters telling them to fork off. Conservative Remainers have had a desperate few years. The referendum result was not the start of it. Well before they lost the referendum, they had lost their party. They have spent the last three years seeking…

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Latest Polling Matters podcast on the US Democratic debate reaction & more on Hunt vs Johnson

Latest Polling Matters podcast on the US Democratic debate reaction & more on Hunt vs Johnson

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On this week’s Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ariel Edwards-Levy of the Huffington Post to discuss the latest developments in the race to face Donald Trump in 2020 following this week’s Democratic debates. Later in the show, Keiran looks at the most recent public opinion numbers on Hunt vs Johnson. Listen to the podcast here Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @aedwardslevy Tweet

The final step. Why the leader of the Conservative party does not automatically become Prime Minister

The final step. Why the leader of the Conservative party does not automatically become Prime Minister

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Professor Brian Cox was once asked to explain string theory in a sentence. His answer: “It’s probably not true.” The same one sentence explanation could be used to explain the theory that the next Conservative leader might not become Prime Minister. But since it’s being talked about quite a bit, let’s have a look at why. The current Parliament was elected at a general election held on 8 June 2017. It resulted in a hung Parliament. It is forgotten now,…

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