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Author: TSE

Boris Johnson channels both Theresa May and Gordon Brown

Boris Johnson channels both Theresa May and Gordon Brown

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Nothing has changed. pic.twitter.com/aVYj3ZhO5y — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2019 Theresa May II — Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) September 2, 2019 He could at least have shown us all the new dog … — Dave Collins (@davidiancollins) September 2, 2019 Very reminiscent of Gordon Brown in 2007 allowing the hype of a snap election to build* then flat out denying he wanted an election *Heck one of Brown's MPs wrote at the time ‘Shortly there will be an election, in which…

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By George! Will BJ flop or will he last a long time?

By George! Will BJ flop or will he last a long time?

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Will Boris Johnson continue to be Prime Minister until the 19th of November 2019? This is an interesting market from Ladbrokes, the one that caught my attention was Boris Johnson breaking George Canning’s record as the shortest serving Prime Minister. My initial thought was to back this market because he’s clearly goaded the anti No Dealers to take drastic action to honour the 2016 referendum campaign to Leave with a deal and with his government threatening to be lawbreakers instead…

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The Tories seem determined to blow up their own party

The Tories seem determined to blow up their own party

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Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new administration has so far moved with speed and determination. That’s one reason why so many commentators seem taken in by its impression of tough-minded resolve and tactical acumen. But we shouldn’t be fooled. There are huge risks in the approach that Johnson and his right-hand man Dominic Cummings are taking, and they have made a series of mistakes that might give their opponents the last laugh. The first blunder the new-model Conservatives made actually predates…

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Breaking: The Conservative Party

Breaking: The Conservative Party

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https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168268494703603712 And me too I hope — Rory Stewart (@RoryStewartUK) September 1, 2019 Tory rebels hit back tonight ??Point out almost 1 in 4 of current cabinet voted against brexit deal under Theresa May??call this “sheer hypocrisy”??insists the threats aren’t working Source close to rebels: pic.twitter.com/qZA0CZMtPu — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) September 1, 2019 A PM ready to say goodbye to a whisker of a majority is a PM who might be ready to call an election… what’s the real…

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Induction Technique. Comparing and combining betting markets

Induction Technique. Comparing and combining betting markets

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Write about what you know, they say. So I don’t normally write about American politics, about which I don’t pretend to have any special understanding. I’ll happily bet on it though. I’m going to break my habit now, to consider four related markets on Betfair and their interrelationship, to see if I can find some relative value. Let’s start with the simplest: the winning party for the 2020 presidential election. The last traded price for the Democrats was 1.92, implying…

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Boris Johnson Invites Himself to the Battle of Ipsus

Boris Johnson Invites Himself to the Battle of Ipsus

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After Alexander the Great died, his actual successors were a newborn baby and a half-brother who suffered learning difficulties. Unsurprisingly, his cadre of incredibly capable generals took real power and soon fell out, leading to the warring era of the Diadochi (Successors). Excepting Perdiccas, who reigned as regent for the few years immediately after Alexander’s death, Antigonus Monopthalmus came closest to uniting the vast realm that the Macedonians had conquered. He was pre-eminent amongst the Diadochi, with as much power…

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This is not a government with any real support for its approach and main policy

This is not a government with any real support for its approach and main policy

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The unelected PM without a mandate has a big credibility problem https://t.co/TMrSpjOb3v — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 30, 2019 New: More say government wrong to prorogue parliament – but Leavers are happy #Brexit pic.twitter.com/lcItRpbeby — Ben Page (@benatipsos) August 30, 2019 New What is closing parliament for? Most don't believe No 10 pic.twitter.com/MJwwtybAQR — Ben Page (@benatipsos) August 30, 2019 The government stopping Parliament from meeting between mid-September and mid-October is… Acceptable: 31%Not acceptable: 53% via @YouGov https://t.co/aLFu514leG pic.twitter.com/9SZWXq40Al —…

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Then what?

Then what?

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The tweet from @TeamSaj quoting what he said in the C4 debate has been deleted. But here is what he said. You can’t delete that. https://t.co/1L5iQgtjAv — Krishnan Guru-Murthy (@krishgm) August 29, 2019 When I was younger, I casually enjoyed those Choose-Your-Own-Adventure books. For those of you that were not nerdy male teenagers in the 1980s, these were books with non-linear structures where you were presented with a series of choices with page numbers.  You made your choice and you…

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