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Author: TSE

Chronicle of a bet foretold Part 2

Chronicle of a bet foretold Part 2

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It is 11am on September 21st 2019 as I write this. Earlier in the year I wrote an article about fixed-odds betting used to insure against political risk. I finished by saying I would investigate other modes, specifically currency conversion. This is that investigation. PREAMBLE The investigation took the form of recollections of previous betting combined with consideration of new modes. Time constraints meant that some modes could only be briefly examined so conclusions from this article should be taken…

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The Bad Boys Of Brexit. A review

The Bad Boys Of Brexit. A review

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The “Bad Boys Of Brexit” relates the adventures of Nigel Farage, Aaron Banks and Andy Wigmore and the Leave.eu campaign from July 2015 to the referendum and beyond, with a later addendum taking the story up to the May election announcement . It’s told in diary format as written by Aaron Banks, one of the leaders of Leave.eu. The blurb tells us that “every Remainer should steel themselves to read it, because the mindset that it captures…is driving change on…

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Before you bet on the next Lib Dem leader market just remember the next leader might be in another party right now

Before you bet on the next Lib Dem leader market just remember the next leader might be in another party right now

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https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1172948987680382976 Surreal to think that fewer than three months ago Sam Gyimah was running to be Tory leader (and PM) and now he's a Liberal Democrat. — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 14, 2019 Bold prediction. The next Lib Dem leader is currently i) Not on this list ii) Not a member of the Lib Dems iii) Currently a member of another party pic.twitter.com/WPwZPWeKHT — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 14, 2019 All things considered I think I’ll give this market a swerve until…

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On the eve of the Lib Dem conference defection speculation goes in to overdrive

On the eve of the Lib Dem conference defection speculation goes in to overdrive

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Hearing rumours of another defection from @UKLabour to Lib Dems. If true, surprise. Bad news for what it represents. — Michael Foster (@MikeFoster1403) September 13, 2019 Eyes emoji klaxon: the Lib Dem branch in Canterbury has cancelled planned hustings for its parliamentary candidate, or rather party has. *IF* Rosie Duffield were to defect, would be hugely significant — the first member of Lab’s 17 I take to quit. https://t.co/CtbzNPE287 — Patrick Maguire (@patrickkmaguire) September 13, 2019 A spokesperson for Rosie…

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Rebels with a cause

Rebels with a cause

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Excl: Expelled Tory rebels plotting to oust Boris Johnson as an MP by running a candidate against him in his Uxbridge marginal seathttps://t.co/inaQ9St31N — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) September 12, 2019 Will the voters in Uxbridge & South Ruislip practise safe X to avoid waking up with a blonde and deep regrets the morning after the next GE? The Sun report that EXPELLED Tory rebels are plotting to oust Boris Johnson as an MP by running a candidate against him,…

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The next general election vote shares by party betting

The next general election vote shares by party betting

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Ladbrokes have markets on the GB vote shares for the Tories, Labour, and Lib Dems at the next general election. I’m sitting out this market for the time being for a variety of reasons mainly to do, but not exclusively, with We’re not sure when it will be, it could be weeks or it could be years away. Nor do we know the circumstances of the election. Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister or Leader of the Opposition at the…

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The man who helped stop a No Deal Brexit earlier this year is confident there is a majority in Parliament for dealing with Brexit first and having an election after

The man who helped stop a No Deal Brexit earlier this year is confident there is a majority in Parliament for dealing with Brexit first and having an election after

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If you’re betting against a 2019 general election (and expecting another referendum) then Oliver Letwin has great news for you. There’s a fascinating interview with Oliver Letwin today, the man who helped prevent a No Deal Brexit earlier on this year. Who’s the most powerful politician in Britain? Usually it’s the Prime Minister. But not always, and not today. Thanks to his mistakes of the past fortnight, Boris Johnson has made himself the prisoner of Parliament. He can’t go forward, can’t retreat…

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