Ladbrokes have a market up on the turnout at the next general election and I can understand why the 65% to 70% band is the favourite as it is the band at what turnout has been at every general election this decade. If Boris Johnson is granted his desire and we have a December general election we will have a first general election in forty-five years that hasn’t been held in the April to June window. There’s a belief amongst…
All the talk is of elections. This time we might actually see one. In a narrative that has strong echoes of 2017, the talk is all of the Conservatives holding large leads in the polls, remaking their coalition and sweeping all gloriously before them with a victory that will transform the electoral map. Well, perhaps. It was Marx who first suggested that when history repeats itself, the first time is tragedy and the second is farce. Whether or not you…
This market from Paddy Power seems to me a guaranteed way to get a 3% return in a little over two months. Like a 2019 general election I think we’re running out of time to hold one because the logistical challenges of holding an election in the run up to Christmas are insurmountable. To hold a 2019 referendum will require primary legislation and the electoral commission guidelines are that it will around twenty-one weeks from announcing a referendum to actually…
Who'd make best Prime Minister? Johnson 43% (+2)Corbyn 21% (-)Not sure 32% (-2) Leavers 73-6 for JohnsonWomen 38-20 Johnson18-24 yr olds 32-29 JohnsonWorking class 44-17 JohnsonMiddle class 42-23 JohnsonLondon 32-29 Johnson Put that in your twitter pipe & smoke it … — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) October 16, 2019 Why I’m not betting on a Tory landslide at the next election. In recent weeks it seems we get regular polling, like the tweet atop this article, on leadership ratings and preferred…
Like prorogation this looks like a classic Dom strategy but I expect Boris Johnson to be submissive to the courts early next week https://t.co/pwkQqnJYNp — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 19, 2019 It’s likely that this will end up in court on Monday. The case in the Scottish courts may well consider that this doesn’t not comply with the spirit of the Benn Act. — Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) October 19, 2019 https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1185663109761060864 https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1185664863856664577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpoliticalbetting.vanillacommunity.com%2Fdiscussion%2F8086%2Fpoliticalbetting-com-blog-archive-johnson-has-till-11pm-to-send-the-letter-or-else-he-could-face%2Fp7 NEW: No 10 sources tell the Sunday Times that…
If anyone is wondering what a negotiating “tunnel” is, it’s just Brussels jargon for trying a bit harder not to leak everything — Jon Stone (@joncstone) October 11, 2019 One of the many quirks of Brexit is that things look brightest when we’re in a tunnel. The announcement on Friday that the government’s latest proposals had gone into private intensive discussions caused market sentiment to soar, as well as the hopes of many political observers. What does it all mean? …
Let us embark on a voyage of discovery and fantasy. Imagine, if you will, that you are Jeremy Corbyn. You are to retreat to your allotment for the day to clear your mind of the ephemeral nonsense of Westminster and to plan strategically. As you cycle past a couple of your favourite manhole covers, you start to turn your mind to the burning question: on what basis do you want to conduct the next election? We need to conduct this…
INTRODUCTION The book is an overview of “National Populism”, the umbrella term the authors use to describe a political stance of increasing electoral salience in Europe and North America, familiar to us as an explanation for Brexit and Trump. The authors are Roger Eatwell of Bath University and Matthew Goodwin of the University and Kent: both are experts in academic study of the right and all its flavours. The book is a summary of their academic studies, expanded into a…