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Author: TSE

A future history of Labour’s election in ten seats

A future history of Labour’s election in ten seats

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Labour will overtake the SNP within 12 months if @LabourRichard wins. Remember this tweet. https://t.co/pnrPdAoAwB — Aaron Bastani (@AaronBastani) October 7, 2017 You have to admire Jeremy Corbyn’s grit. Facing personal polling figures that find him to be less popular than herpes, he has nevertheless sought out the fight and is looking to repeat the confounding of expectations that he achieved in 2017.   If anything, the prospects are still more daunting this time round. Labour’s polling has been at a…

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The Conservatives’ election chances. Ten Seats To Watch

The Conservatives’ election chances. Ten Seats To Watch

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And they’re off.  The Conservatives have raced into an early lead in the polls and will be looking to secure an overall majority. Will they do it? Here are ten seats that will be illustrative of how they will do.   Cheltenham Long-held by the Lib Dems, the Conservatives took Cheltenham in 2015. This constituency was “won” by Remain something like 57:43. It’s a very clear Lib Dem target, though its current MP Alex Chalk himself supported Remain and has opposed…

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The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labour at a general election?

The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labour at a general election?

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We saw in Scotland tribal loyalty to Labour can be upturned by a nation changing referendum, will Wales be next? The latest polling in Wales shows the Conservatives leading Labour 29% to 25% yet that 4% lead for the Conservatives still sees Labour win more seats than the Conservatives so it is understandable why Labour are the favourites in this market because first past the post and old constituency boundaries are working against the Conservatives in Wales. I think there’s…

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How sensitive are the poll figures?

How sensitive are the poll figures?

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Let’s take a step back from the day-to-day swings and look at the overall picture, focused on the likelihood of a Conservative overall majority (I’m not going to look here at changes between the opposition parties). The result at the last election was  Con 42 Lab 40 LD 7 UKIP 2 Green 2 others 7 The current polling average is  Con 37 (-5) Lab 25 (-15) LD 17 (+10) BXP 11 (+9 over UKIP) Green 4 (+2) I’m taking here…

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New PB / Polling Matters podcast. And they’re off! General Election 2019 kicks off.

New PB / Polling Matters podcast. And they’re off! General Election 2019 kicks off.

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Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the numbers as a December 12th election is announced. Who is best placed? What is the path to victory for each party and what should we look out for in the coming weeks? Listen to the podcast below: Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

Things that nobody knows. What to watch out for in the coming election

Things that nobody knows. What to watch out for in the coming election

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Nobody knows anything. The results of the last two general elections and the referendum result have all come as a major surprise to all the wiseacres (including me). So it is time for a little humility and to think about some of the things we don’t yet know about this election. Here are a few. 1) What are the people who voted in 2017 and who are now saying “don’t know/won’t vote” going to do? In a recent YouGov poll,…

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By two to one the voters think the Brexit referendum should not have been held

By two to one the voters think the Brexit referendum should not have been held

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Fascinating finding from @OpiniumResearch 'Brexit referendum should never have been called, say majority of voters'https://t.co/Tgrgm69kyA — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 26, 2019 Hindsight is a wonderful thing Today’s Observer is reporting that Twice as many people now think it would have been better never to have held a referendum on Brexit than believe it was a good idea, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer. Asked to consider the difficulties the government has had in reaching an agreement, 57% of UK adults…

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Betting on the turnout at the next general election

Betting on the turnout at the next general election

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Ladbrokes have a market up on the turnout at the next general election and I can understand why the 65% to 70% band is the favourite as it is the band at what turnout has been at every general election this decade. If Boris Johnson is granted his desire and we have a December general election we will have a first general election in forty-five years that hasn’t been held in the April to June window. There’s a belief amongst…

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