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Author: TSE

The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine what type of Brexit we get, if we get Brexit

The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine what type of Brexit we get, if we get Brexit

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As the late United States President, LBJ once said “Politics is the ability to count”. Currently the polls and the betting markets have a Conservative Majority as the most likely outcome, but these are fallible; the manifestoes are not out yet and the nation may not be comfortable with the idea of a large Tory Majority Gov’t. In this thread I will examine the numerology of the next election working through various scenarios: First up 326 + CON MPs –…

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Looking at the Welsh constituency betting

Looking at the Welsh constituency betting

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This looks like being a volatile election in many areas, but nowhere is that truer than in Wales. Five different parties are currently polling in double digits and none is yet polling above 30%. Current polls suggest that the current distribution of constituencies could be upended. Polling, of course, could still change dramatically before the election actually arrives. Historically, Wales has been dominated by Labour. They have won the most seats in every election since December 1918. At the last…

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A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

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There is a ghost which is stalking this election in the media coverage, and it is the spirit of 2017. Everywhere one looks right leaning journalists are fretting and not quite believing the polls. The spirit of Election 2017 and a good ghost for Labour it is too – “Oh Jeremy Corbyn !”. Everywhere one looks the written media is observing this election as a closish horse race “You can’t rely on labour leavers to not revert to type” twitter…

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Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

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Goodness knows I try not to offend. Among the more controversial posts that I have ever put up, however, was one that concerned the SNP’s results at the last election. I noted that the SNP had lost more seats than the Conservatives and that they came within a whisker of losing many more. Their strategic position for the next election looked terrible. This did not go down well with the nationalist fraternity. Yet here we are in 2019, facing that…

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It is possible Jeremy Corbyn really hates political bettors

It is possible Jeremy Corbyn really hates political bettors

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there would literally be one Leave leader and one Remain leader and I’m not making this up https://t.co/MfyMwtAtB9 — Jim Pickard ? (@PickardJE) November 8, 2019 If the polls are broadly correct we are potentially only a few weeks from the start of the next Labour leadership contest, for some of us we’ve been betting on the identity of Jeremy Corbyn’s successor for around fifty months so these are exciting times, however there is a potential spanner in the works….

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Can anyone challenge the green and orange waves?

Can anyone challenge the green and orange waves?

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A guest slot by GreenMachine A lot has happened since the 2017 election and the Northern Ireland Executive has been out of office for 3 years now, What will we see this in the election!? First of all we’re going to start with the more obvious results. Belfast West: S.F have held this seat since the 1980’s bar the 1992 election where the S.D.L.P won by several hundred votes. S.F regained control of Belfast West in 1997 (shortly after the Peace…

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The spread markets the Tories down a touch but still heading for a majority

The spread markets the Tories down a touch but still heading for a majority

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SportingIndex The Greens up following the United for Remain moves Until we get the final outcome I’m planning to do regular posts on the Commons Seats spread-betting market from SportingIndex. This will act as a useful reference to how things have changed and how punters are seeing things. What I like about these markets is this gets right down to the general election outcome in terms of seats. This is a form of betting for those ready to risk what…

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Ten Lib Dem seats to watch

Ten Lib Dem seats to watch

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The Lib Dems do not lack for stated public ambition. Jo Swinson is positioning herself as a potential Prime Minister after the election, which shows some optimism considering that the Lib Dems started the last Parliament with just 12 MPs and ended it with just 20, many of whom look by no means certainties to return to Parliament next time.   Still, fair lady never won with faint heart. Here are ten seats which will give a fair indication of just…

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