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Raab in trouble whilst Labour are on course to increase their majority in top Tory target seat

Raab in trouble whilst Labour are on course to increase their majority in top Tory target seat

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Esher & Walton, constituency voting intention: CON: 46% (-13)LDEM: 41% (+24)LAB: 9% (-11) via @DeltapollUK, 21 – 26 Nov — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 30, 2019 Portsmouth South, constituency voting intention: LAB: 46% (+5)CON: 38% (-)LDEM: 11% (-6)BREX: 2% (+2) via @DeltapollUK, 22 – 27 NovChgs. w/ GE2017 — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 30, 2019 Tonight sees a plethora of constituency polling by Deltapoll, I’ve chosen the two results that are eye catching. Dominic Raab who had a 42% majority…

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Majority opinion. Looking at the Conservatives’ chances from a different perspective

Majority opinion. Looking at the Conservatives’ chances from a different perspective

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Average of 8 latest polls, taken 14-22 Nov (incl today's BMG, Opinium, Panelbase, YouGov):Con 43%Lab 29%Lib Dem 15%Brexit Party 4%Green 3% Projected Con majority 94 (All polls take account of Brexit Party standing down; Scotland projected from Panelbase & YouGov, 9-25 Oct) — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) November 23, 2019 But the range is still huge, from Con majority of 0 on a 10-point lead (Panelbase) to one of 210 on a 19-point lead (Opinium) — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) November 23,…

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If this polling turns out to be accurate then it is great news for the SNP and Boris Johnson

If this polling turns out to be accurate then it is great news for the SNP and Boris Johnson

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A poll graphic with a range of exciting facial expressions on our party leaders? Ok, seeing as it’s you pic.twitter.com/ASI9ckwxXn — Jason Allardyce (@Jason_Allardyce) November 24, 2019 I have to admit I wasn’t expecting to see this, after all it was heavily trailed earlier on this year, that the Johnson/Cummings strategy to sacrifice Scottish and Remain inclined seats to win a plethora of Labour held Leave inclined seats. As the country’s greatest ever psephologist, Professor Sir John Curtice, writes Just…

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The first sign that Boris Johnson is going to repeat Theresa May’s dire campaign performance at GE2017?

The first sign that Boris Johnson is going to repeat Theresa May’s dire campaign performance at GE2017?

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If these @DeltapollUK ratings are replicated with @IpsosMORI then Boris Johnson is about to repeat Theresa May's cratering of her ratings at GE2017. pic.twitter.com/fJQxWO6Hkx — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 23, 2019 Corbyn reducing the PM’s net approval ratings lead by 23 points in a week is a worrying sign for Boris Johnson. Longstanding readers of PB will know that leadership ratings are a much better predictor of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures, they foretold the unexpected Conservative majorities of…

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ALMOST THREE YEARS! We Have Simply Had Enough! Get Back To Work!

ALMOST THREE YEARS! We Have Simply Had Enough! Get Back To Work!

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A1 guest slot by The Green Machine It’s been all three years (since January 2017) that the Northern Ireland government has been in their work place, why? Well, first of all things haven’t been the same since the days of the Irish Chuckle Brothers (Martin McGuinness & Ian Paisley). It’s hard to believe that these two bitter rivals for around 30 years were very close friends in the end. They done more together than the public think. In 2014, Ian…

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Swinson’s Choice

Swinson’s Choice

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There is an ancient tradition in Britain of beating the bounds, where once a year, various members of the community walk the boundaries of their parish to fix its location and protect it from encroachment. In some cases, they would take boys and whip them, with the intent that such a traumatic event would be fixed in their memory. The general elections of 2015 and 2017 were certainly traumatic events for the Liberal Democrats, and they clearly still weigh heavily…

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Seduced and abandoned. The DUP’s chances in the general election

Seduced and abandoned. The DUP’s chances in the general election

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Even as a famous swordsman, Boris Johnson must be proud of the way that he has so comprehensively screwed the DUP. His Prime Ministership has not so much been a refutation of their strategy as a confutation of the DUP themselves.   The DUP have for many years campaigned as unflinching unionists.  Though they choose to forget the fact now, they campaigned against the Good Friday Agreement as a sell-out. They are not ideologically Conservatives: they are free-spending cultural conservatives of…

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The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine what type of Brexit we get, if we get Brexit

The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine what type of Brexit we get, if we get Brexit

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As the late United States President, LBJ once said “Politics is the ability to count”. Currently the polls and the betting markets have a Conservative Majority as the most likely outcome, but these are fallible; the manifestoes are not out yet and the nation may not be comfortable with the idea of a large Tory Majority Gov’t. In this thread I will examine the numerology of the next election working through various scenarios: First up 326 + CON MPs –…

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