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Author: TSE

PB GE2019 Analysis: Corbyn’s Satisfaction Ratings at elections

PB GE2019 Analysis: Corbyn’s Satisfaction Ratings at elections

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I’ve written before about Jeremy Corbyn’s personal ratings difficulties, and they did not improve in the following months. In September and October of 2019, he racked up satisfaction ratings of -60, the lowest any Leader of the Opposition has rated since Ipsos-Mori started polling it in 1977 (snatching the record from Michael Foot). In October that came from satisfied a rating of 15%, the third lowest rating on record (narrowly losing out to William Hague in June of 1997 and…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Election preview / will there be a hung parliament?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Election preview / will there be a hung parliament?

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On the latest PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi delve deep into the numbers to preview what will happen Thursday. They ask ‘who has had a good or bad campaign?’ and crucially ‘Will there be a hung parliament?’ Listen to the podcast below: Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

Jeremy Corbyn the modern day Harold Wilson or John Major?

Jeremy Corbyn the modern day Harold Wilson or John Major?

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Jeremy Corbyn came to the Labour leadership contest as an outsider and was elected as a revolution, a rejection of Blairite centrism and a return to socialism. It was a choice to try to find and rally latent support on the left as a path to victory rather than trying to occupy the centre-ground and the tactics of triangulation. It’s a decision that the Democratic party is wrestling with in their search for a nominee in an election that feels…

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A new betting strategy worth pursuing?

A new betting strategy worth pursuing?

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Fascinating analysis by The Sunday Times. Activists directed to help Corbynistas rather than target winnable seats.https://t.co/HimIjC8mNF pic.twitter.com/jnxIgH4Aau — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 7, 2019 Don’t back Corbyn critics in seats they are expected to hold & back the Corbyn supporters in the seats they are narrowly expected to lose? There’s a fascinating story in today’s Sunday Times Momentum, the grassroots campaign group that backs Jeremy Corbyn, proposes on its online campaign map that canvassers travel to areas whose candidates are devoted…

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Labour’s Brexit Divisions

Labour’s Brexit Divisions

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Political parties have always been coalitions in themselves. They are big tents and broad churches that try to keep everyone singing from more or less the same hymn sheet, or at least not fighting in the aisles. But sometimes you can see the stretch and the strain in the canvas as it tries to hold it all together. As James Maxton quipped during Labour party splits in the 1930s, “if you can’t ride two horses at once then you’ve no…

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Sheffield Hallam, a Labour hold?

Sheffield Hallam, a Labour hold?

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Picture: The gateway to paradise Sheffield Hallam seems like a nailed on gain for the Liberal Democrats on the 12th of December, they have an energetic candidate in Laura Gordon, and have been working hard in the constituency they held between 1997 and 2017 but will it be a gain? It seems like a bold call to say Labour might hold this wonderful constituency considering the Lib Dems are nationally polling double what they polled in 2017 with Labour polling…

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Your regular reminder that hypothetical polls can be as accurate as an American war film

Your regular reminder that hypothetical polls can be as accurate as an American war film

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Westminster voting intention… if "the deadline for the UK to leave the EU has been extended beyond the 31st of October 2019": LAB: 27%CON: 26%BREX: 20%LDEM: 18%GRN: 4% via @ComRes, 16 – 17 Oct — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) October 24, 2019 Our latest #GE2019 Westminster voting intention on behalf of the Sunday @Telegraph CON 43% (+2)LAB 33% (-1)LD 13% (-)BRX 4% (-1)Other 7% (-) 27th – 28th Nov (changes from Savanta ComRes/Telegraph, Nov 27th)https://t.co/92GhonpwXq pic.twitter.com/JGn3lJLO7k — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) November…

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History of the Political Punter: Always Expect the Unexpected

History of the Political Punter: Always Expect the Unexpected

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The modern era of big, open, political betting began in 1963 when Ron Pollard of Ladbrokes offered odds on the Conservative leadership contest for the ordinary punter. It was a dismal start as the 5/4 favourite Rab Butler was beaten by the 16/1 shot Alec Douglas-Home. In offering the market Pollard tapped into a long, often secret, history of political betting in Britain. In the 1920s, people on the stock exchange would bet on ‘majorities’ – what we now call…

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