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Author: TSE

The government needs to sort out the PPE issues or it will be seen as wilfully incompetent, or worse

The government needs to sort out the PPE issues or it will be seen as wilfully incompetent, or worse

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As someone who has been generally supportive of the government’s handling of Covid-19 I’m despairing at the handling of issues related to PPE and testing, but in this piece I’m going to focus solely on PPE. Up to now the worst accusation from respectable observers at the government is that they listened to their scientists, if that’s the worst accusation to be levelled at the government the government should be fine, however there’s now a danger the issues around PPE…

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After the ice. The Lib Dems’ prospects for 2024

After the ice. The Lib Dems’ prospects for 2024

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Nemesis followed hubris so quickly for Jo Swinson, they were able to pass the relay baton in the exchange zone. No sooner had she mooted the possibility of her being the next Prime Minister than she found herself dumped out of Parliament. It is a short step from the sublime to the ridiculous. The Lib Dems also went backwards in the seat count. They held 21 before the election, having won 12 in 2017 and benefited from a clump of defections. After the general…

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Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority, here’s that in context

Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority, here’s that in context

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As Alastair Meeks pointed out this morning Sir Keir Starmer and Labour need a net gain of 124 seats at the next election for a majority so I thought it would be interesting to see how man net gains each Leaders of the Opposition have made at each general election from 1945 onwards. Only three LOTOs have made over 100 net gains at at next election, Attlee, Blair, and Cameron, so Starmer will be joining stellar company if he achieves…

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The Grand Entrance. Sir Keir Starmer’s electoral challenges

The Grand Entrance. Sir Keir Starmer’s electoral challenges

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So passes Jeremy Corbyn.  He hands over to his successor a party in the doldrums, with just 202 MPs, most representing seats in the largest metropolitan areas.  If Labour are to win an overall majority of one at the next election, they will need 124 extra MPs. That would require a uniform national swing of over 10%.  Such swings are exceptionally rare. The last time it happened was in 1997. So Labour better hope that Sir Keir is a new…

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Tuesday is the 54th anniversary the last time a Labour leader other than Tony Blair won a working majority

Tuesday is the 54th anniversary the last time a Labour leader other than Tony Blair won a working majority

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As we approach the end of the Corbyn era I thought it would be look at what winning the argument actually looks like. This is not meant as an attack on Corbyn or Labour per se because winning a working majority is bloody hard. Prior to Boris Johnson’s victory last December in the last 49 years no Tory had won a working majority other than Margaret Thatcher. It shows the difficulty of Corbyn’s successor, whoever that may be, winning a…

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The exit door. The state of Labour as Jeremy Corbyn departs

The exit door. The state of Labour as Jeremy Corbyn departs

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What of Labour?  This is a question that almost no one is thinking about as, almost unnoticed, Jeremy Corbyn slips out of the limelight.  Like the Magnificent Ambersons, Labour have got their comeuppance. They’d got it three times filled and running over. But those who had longed for it were not there to see it. And they never knew it, those who were still living had forgotten all about it, and all about them. That irrelevance bodes ill for Labour. …

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David Cameron once said Dominic Cummings was a ‘career psychopath’, here’s further proof for David Cameron’s assertion.

David Cameron once said Dominic Cummings was a ‘career psychopath’, here’s further proof for David Cameron’s assertion.

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In the world of politics perceptions occasionally matter more than reality, as the below tweet shows Dominic Cummings totally misunderstood things. Why this is crucial is that it will feed a narrative that the Conservatives are callous and anyone who feels a close family member of friend was sacrificed because of the strategic blunders by Dominic Cummings has the potential to reap an electoral whirlwind for the Conservative Party that they may never recover from. This also confirms the hunch…

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The current big UK betting market: Who’ll be next Shadow Chancellor?

The current big UK betting market: Who’ll be next Shadow Chancellor?

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This market from Ladbrokes about who will succeed John McDonnell as Shadow Chancellor is an intriguing market. I’m working on the assumption that Sir Keir Starmer wins the Labour leadership quite comfortably which gives him plenty of latitude in who to choose. I’m ruling out anyone who is in the Deputy Leader race as I think they’ll end up focussing on that role exclusively. I’m ruling out Rebecca Long Bailey because I have a hunch that Starmer wants to move…

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