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Author: TSE

Priti Patel may just have changed the Tory leadership rules and this has major betting implications

Priti Patel may just have changed the Tory leadership rules and this has major betting implications

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Voting systems matter when it comes to betting Earlier on this week Priti Patel made the astonishing announcement that the 2011 AV referendum result wasn’t just a rejection of AV but all transferable voting systems which is quite the radical interpretation of the referendum result given there are other transferable voting systems apart from AV which were not on the 2011 referendum ballot paper. If Patel and the Tory party wish to be consistent and avoid accusations of hypocrisy then…

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You might need a brave heart for this Scottish bet

You might need a brave heart for this Scottish bet

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Betting on Scottish matters has been an enjoyable and very profitable area for myself and many other PBers, from seeing Iain Gray’s collapsing ratings in 2011 indicating the SNP was going to achieve what the voting system was designed to stop, to 2014 referendum, to the SNP tsunami in 2015, the SNP losing their majority which was tipped at 10/1 and 8/1 on the day of the 2016 election, and the 2017 Scottish Tory surge, perhaps it is distance and…

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Things to look forward to in 2021: An exciting by-election

Things to look forward to in 2021: An exciting by-election

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Yorkshire, once again, may prove to be the most important place in the United Kingdom, if not the world. In May there’s a plethora of elections that will have profound implications for the United Kingdom, Scotland’s election is likely to be primus inter pares but the result with the most seismic changes could be the aftershocks of the election for Mayor of West Yorkshire. The 1/10 favourite is Labour’s Tracy Babin who has said if she wins she will resign…

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Like Brian Rose, Laurence Fox seems like a clear lay for London Mayor

Like Brian Rose, Laurence Fox seems like a clear lay for London Mayor

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Last night it was announced Laurence Fox was going to stand in the election for Mayor of London, he’s got until the end of the month to get his nomination papers submitted, so he’s not announced this too late. I just have the feeling that London is absolutely the worst place in the country for a party led by Laurence Fox to do well with his messaging. I suspect the electorate of London will make Fox feel like he’s a…

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Polling Klaxon: Why you shouldn’t read too much into a small subsample, see this Scottish subsample as the perfect example

Polling Klaxon: Why you shouldn’t read too much into a small subsample, see this Scottish subsample as the perfect example

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Earlier on this week there was much excitement about that tweet from UK Briefing that the SNP had shed nearly a quarter of their vote which would fit a certain narrative given the recent extraordinary contretemps between Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond, and the original tweet was retweeted with wild abandon. However astute poll watchers like Anthony Wells and Britain Elects plus myself pointed out that the figures quoted by UK Briefing was a subsample of 154 which is nowhere…

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How do you solve a solution like the Northern Ireland Protocol?

How do you solve a solution like the Northern Ireland Protocol?

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Much like getting your girlfriend pregnant on a pull out sofa there’s a deep sense of irony that the Conservative & Unionist Party, aided and abetted by the DUP, have via Brexit done more to weaken Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom than the IRA. As we can see from Northern Ireland pollster LucidTalk, 77% of all voters in the province and 67% of DUP voters think Boris Johnson’s Northern Ireland protocol will weaken Northern Ireland position in the…

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Starmer, not up to it?

Starmer, not up to it?

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As I noted in the previous thread that looking at the supplementary questions in polls are often much more useful pointers than headline voting intention figures and this is another supplementary that caught my attention in light of the pandemic and the UK having such appalling death figures related to Covid-19. During, what one hopes is, a once in a century pandemic Labour would hope their leader would be the person best equipped to hold the government to account. Instead…

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Tracking Covid

Tracking Covid

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Will the voters think the vaccine rollout doesn’t forgive the high death toll beforehand? I find the this polling very interesting because recent experiences over the last decade has shown leadership ratings and supplementaries are a better predictor of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures, which is why I look at the supplementaries with a fine-tooth comb. Opinium, in their poll published last night, found something similar to the YouGov findings above. The public think the government has continued…

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