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Apologies for inflicting GB News on you but I was intrigued by this interview with Dr Jan Halper-Hayes, overseas strategic adviser to Donald Trump, where she talked about the possibility of Trump being President before the 2024 election. One plan is to install Trump as Speaker of the House (and you don’t need to be a member of Congress to be Speaker) and then impeach Biden and Harris after the midterms which would make the Speaker, second in the line…

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Why the headline VI figures might not be telling the full picture One of the reasons I felt confident the Conservative party would do better than the voting intention polls for the 2015 general election suggested was David Cameron’s leadership ratings, various other supplementaries, one of which was the polling that repeatedly showed that David Cameron was consistently better rated the Conservative Party whereas as Ed Miliband was at best a non drag on the Labour party and at worst…

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Following Christian Wakeford’s stunning act of tergiversation Smarkets have a market up on whether we’ll see more Tory defections by the end of the next month, based on the story below you can understand why. My normal instinct in theis type of market is to back No. A little over three months ago it was said that three Labour MPs were ready to defect to the Tory Party, I wrote at the time ‘Defections usually aren’t normally leaked until the…

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Just before PMQs, I think this could be one of the grimmest ever PMQs for a Prime Minister in a long time, I don’t have enough popcorn for this. The most important question. Is this the first of many? This red wall polling might focus minds. TSE

His constituency might be why Boris Johnson resigns as PM before the next election I’ve been following UK general elections from 1992 onwards, so that’s eight general election nights (the last three of which have been when I was in the editor’s chair of PB) and in my humble opinion the most memorable and seminal moment was at the 1997 general election when Michael Portillo lost his seat of Enfield Southgate. In a moment Portillo went from likely successor to…

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Those of us who had to go through several hoops to get paid out on the Theresa May exit date as Tory leader markets are understandably wary about exit date markets unless the terms are explicitly laid out, fortunately this market from Smarkets make the terms explicitly clear. In this market I’m backing No, I can get a 25% return in just over a fortnight, I cannot see Boris Johnson standing down voluntarily, even if much worse stories emerge about…

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Watching PMQs was a must see for political anoraks because Boris Johnson’s inability to lie straight in a bed is catching up with him, to be honest, hiding in a fridge today would have caused him less difficulties, his non apology was bad but a response to a story from Sir Keir Starmer about someone whose father died during the pandemic and Boris Johnson’s reply included about the UK being the fastest growing economy in the G7, an utterly tone…

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