The speed of Rishi Sunak’s fall from grace from nailed on next Conservative leader and Prime Minister to someone the public really doesn’t like is astonishing and is one of the more remarkable things in the history of British politics. The only real rival to this rapid fall is Theresa May’s going from the PM who was on course for a majority of 290 seats to losing David Cameron’s majority in a little over seven weeks. Tomorrow is the fifth…
TSE
My expectation for today has been the lower the turnout the more damaging it would be for Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon whilst being great for Marine Le Pen. So the 12pm CST release from the Ministère de l’Intérieur was useful to know, with turnout 3% lower at the equivalent stage in 2017. The tweets from Mathieu Gallard do add an important caveat, the 12pm figure isn’t usually indicative of the final turnout figure. However based on the 12pm figure,…
How will the pandemic impact the next general election? When it comes to predicting and betting on the next general election Covid-19 is what makes me unconfident about the election. Hopefully the pandemic will be over with no scary vaccine evading variants by the time of the next election, but the legacy of the pandemic is likely to be with us for years to come. The most obvious legacy will be the backlog in the NHS caused by the pandemic,…
This poll is further proof that the cost of living crisis and the government’s handling of it is very likely going to damage the Conservatives at the next general election. Pessimism on the economy hitting historic lows isn’t good news for the government but when 42% of voters think Rishi Sunak has made the economy worse since becoming Chancellor whilst just 16% say he has made the economy is not a good place for him or the government. He’s a…
Last week I noted there was the potential for the government to get a polling and campaign boost at the next general election based on their overall Covid-19 record but after seeing this polling I’m considering revising that view. What should really alarm the government is this polling was conducted before the news broke from the gold standard ONS. that a recording breaking nearly five million people in England would have had Covid-19 last week. With the end of free…
For me it seems like only the other day but earlier on this week was the second anniversary of Boris Johnson introducing the first lockdown and I was intrigued by this polling by Ipsos. Unsurprisingly there’s very little desire any future lockdowns. The most intriguing thing for me was that 42% of the public think the UK handled the pandemic well compared to other countries whilst 27% disagree. This suggests the government might be able to campaign on their Covid-19…
My expectation was that Russia’s extension of their invasion of Ukraine would lead to a bit of a polling boost for the government based on historical precedent and the fact Boris Johnson is actually doing something right and competent yet that really hasn’t materialised, so why is that? Looking at that polling from Ipsos we can see that compared to past handling of foreign affairs this government is towards the back of the field, so that explains why there hasn’t…