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If you’re betting on Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership ending in 2022 then this news will get you excited. I’m still of the belief that if Starmer resigns after receiving a FPN then the pressure on the Prime Minister to resign will become unassailable. With the Prime Minister facing a pinch point with his appointment of Chris Pincher, despite all the warnings, the PM seems even more vulnerable despite winning the vote of confidence last month because of the Pincher scandal….

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Prior to the result in Tiverton & Honiton YouGov published the above polling analysis about the potential Tory losses in the South West of the United Kingdom and the result from Tiverton & Honiton will only exacerbate Boris Johnson’s problems. It isn’t unkind nor unfair to describe the current cabinet is a cabinet of political eunuchs but if the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg and George Eustice start worrying about losing their seats then they might force Boris Johnson, after all…

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Whilst replacing Boris Johnson as Tory leader is likely to improve the Tory performance in the polls (unless they replace him with the ludicrous popinjay Jacob Rees-Mogg or the ghastly Priti Patel) however they if the party replaces him with someone more palatable to the country then that will not be enough to win the next election. The new leader will also need some new policies, given the prevailing economic headwinds there may well be very little room for them…

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After the events of the last week it seemed inevitable that there would be a market on Le Royaume-Uni withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights and Smarkets have obliged. Sagacious observers like David Herdson have noted the Tory Party’s response to the recent ruling by the ECHR shows the Tory party have gone quite mad. The terms of this bet are perspicuous which makes backing No in this market obvious. Based on the precedent set by R (Miller)…

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Ever since it is appeared likely Boris Johnson would face a leadership contest there have been rumours that to reassert his authority Boris Johnson may hold a snap election. I have dismissed such talk as more full of bollocks than a jockstrap because I don’t think the Tory party is in a financial position to fund a general election, the chance of Boris Johnson losing his seat isn’t negligible, and the state and direction of the economy would stop an…

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For those us who believe in egalitarianism and democracy, having an unelected head of state is an obscenity, after all we wouldn’t accept hereditary doctors or prime ministers? There’s hope that when Prince Charles ascends to the throne he will do more for ending the monarchy in this country since Richard Cromwell. Whilst Prince Charles has correctly assessed Priti Patel’s Rwandan policy is awful he really should keep his thoughts to himself, it is a disturbing trend from the Royals…

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I really do enjoy the betting opportunities that Smarkets give us when it comes to opinion polls. Looking at last night’s poll from Opinium which gave Labour a mere 2% lead, and with another Opinium due in a fortnight I can understand why the 20 on June being the month of the next Tory poll lead will seem attractive to many. The ongoing cost of living crisis makes me dubious on backing any Tory lead in the short term but…

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