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Author: TSE

Crisis, what crisis?

Crisis, what crisis?

It would appear to deal with the looming energy price increases Liz Truss will cut taxes for companies rather than directly help voters. If she does that then I confidently predict at the general election only Radiohead will have a worse record than Liz Truss and her government. Those YouGov findings show how badly the voters are expecting things to get, the gold standard ONS found ‘that close to half (44%) of UK adults who pay energy bills found it…

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Another reason why Boris Johnson had to go

Another reason why Boris Johnson had to go

That minus 90 net favourability rating that Boris Johnson enjoys with 2019 Tory voters who currently say they would vote Labour made me think it was a typo but that is the real figure, 94% have an unfavourable opinion of Boris Johnson whilst 4% of this demographic have a favourable opinion of Boris Johnson whilst. By contrast 7% of the public tell YouGov that they personally have seen a UFO. This is another poll that makes me think the Tory…

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Dear Prime Minister, the trend is not your friend

Dear Prime Minister, the trend is not your friend

Opponents of Boris Johnson will see this poll that shows 69% of the public want Boris Johnson to resign and think ‘nice’, but the most damning stat for Boris Johnson is that as many Tory voters wants him to go as stay, which as the tweet states about this is quite the change from the start of the month. The more we hear stories about Boris Johnson regretting resigning and/or planning a comeback in the future then I suspect the…

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A 33% return in just under two and a half years?

A 33% return in just under two and a half years?

I’ve generally avoided betting on all things related to a future Scottish independence referendum because back in 2014 I genuinely expected the issue had been settled for a generation and didn’t fancy tying my money up for decades. After the fun of the Theresa May exit date and the 2020 Presidential markets fiasco I am also keen to avoid bets where the bets are ill defined, ambiguous, or are randomly changed by the bookie after I’ve made the bet. After…

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Truss dominates Sunak in the polling except the key one?

Truss dominates Sunak in the polling except the key one?

Based on those YouGov findings Rishi Sunak’s leadership ambitions are as doomed as stepmother’s chances in succeeding in a Disney film yet there is one morsel of comfort for him. Despite Liz Truss having so many hefty leads over on so many topics yes Sunak has a 1% lead on which one looks the most Prime Ministerial, based on everything else you’d expect Truss to have a substantial lead on this question, perhaps Tory members realise Liz Truss is a…

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We are headed for a new Elizabethan era

We are headed for a new Elizabethan era

Chart from Betdata.io The chart above from Betdata.io reflects how badly Rishi Sunak blew his opportunity last night, it was his last major opportunity to damage Liz Truss before the ballots go out to Tory members. Past form suggests Tory members send their ballots back quickly so even if Sunak damages Truss later in the later hustings it won’t have much impact. I know betting markets have been spectacularly wrong before, but I don’t think so in this instance, based…

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The real winner of tonight’s debate was Starmer & Labour

The real winner of tonight’s debate was Starmer & Labour

I was asked to sum up tonight’s debate in word and I used the word unedifying as Rishi Sunak mansplained Liz Truss to within an inch of her life and Liz Truss displayed all depth of a puddle. Former republican Truss produced so many of Labour’s election posters and broadcasts tonight. I’m also expecting a YouGov poll on tonight’s debate. TSE