This tribute from Times Radio to Sir David Butler, who died earlier on this week, is well worth watching. For those of us who follow elections and analyse them the work of Sir David Butler helped us understand them a lot better. The Guardian wrote on Wednesday Sir David Butler, the father of modern election science whose career spanned more than 70 years, has died at the aged of 98. Butler’s friend and biographer, the journalist Michael Crick, paid tribute…
I love analysis like this from Patrick English, there’s not much more I can add other than it shows how bad the position the Tory party finds itself and that Sunak is the least worst option. That lead for Starmer over Sunak is jaw dropping but that lead looks tiny when compared when compared to the lead Starmer has over Johnson. Tory MPs in the Red Wall might see Boris Johnson as their best option in saving their seats but…
The kernel of doubt at the back of my mind on why Labour might not win a majority at the next election is Sunak’s lead on the economy. Now polling is not static and Sunak’s lead on the economy may have evaporated or extended but if the cost of living issue is still live at the next election then that lead for Sunak on the economy will be as useless as a chocolate fireguard. The following polling shows the economy…
Light the beacons of Gondor, it turns out Boris Johnson was telling the truth last month, an event rarer than a decent Radiohead album, the BBC report that Boris Johnson had signed up enough MPs to mount a challenge to Rishi Sunak for the Conservative leadership, senior Tory Sir Graham Brady has confirmed. Mr Johnson dramatically pulled out of the race amid speculation he did not have the 100 nominations needed. But Sir Graham, who runs Tory leadership contests, said…
This betting opportunity from Smarkets is worth looking at, the market is about a Tory MP defecting to Labour by the end of the year, my hunch is plenty of you will fancy a seven per cent return in just over two months. I wonder if the value is with yes, the grim reality for Tory MPs is that the smallest Labour lead this month is a mere 16%, if you want to save your career the best option is…
This story is genuinely jaw dropping Liz Truss’s personal phone was hacked for top-secret information by suspected Russian agents, according to the Mail on Sunday. The attackers are said to have gained access to details of negotiations with international allies, as well as private messages exchanged with her close friend Kwasi Kwarteng. The hack was uncovered during the Tory leadership campaign this summer, while Ms Truss was foreign secretary but the details were suppressed by then prime minister Boris Johnson and Simon…
Ipsos aren’t the only pollsters to find support/opinions on Brexit being very low. I take the view that people saying Brexit is going badly/viewed negatively is not synonymous with rejoining however I recall a conversation I had with a Brexiteer in the run up to the referendum who took the view that if the UK voted to Leave and the country ultimately decided Brexit was a mistake they would vote to overturn it. Unless something fundamentally changes I suspect support/approval…
Will Boris Johnson backing Tory MPs take notice of this polling? Rishi Sunak must see the polling showing that 69% of voters thinking Boris Johnson will not becoming back and think nice, that’s a bad position for Boris Johnson to find himself in. The striking numbers are just how many Tory voters do not want and don’t expect Boris Johnson to return. There’s a reason why his polling was closer to Jeremy Corbyn’s polling in December 2019. TSE