politicalbetting.com

Staff running local elections in May risk being “overwhelmed” by bureaucracy and complaints before and on polling day because of new rules requiring all voters to produce photo ID in order to cast their ballots. The warning has been issued by the Local Government Association (LGA) amid rising concern that the requirements are too strict, and inadequate preparation has been done to inform voters that the rules have changed. Ministers say the move, piloted in several local authorities at previous…

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This is grim reading for the Tories, and whilst Sunak does poll better than his party the trend is Sunak’s ratings are moving closer to the Tory Party’s ratings. If this polling doesn’t change then I expect tactical voting will make a poor general election result much worse than UNS would suggest for the Tories especially with Labour having a net favourable score. With the Tories still wedded to Brexit and the country increasingly agreeing that Brexit was a mistake/going…

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Electorally, I cannot think of anything more ghastly than being compelled to vote, any politician or party that proposes compulsory voting will not receive my vote. If such a policy did become law the primary consequence would be an increase in the number of ballot papers with phallus shaped drawings on them. TSE

I’ve been clear for a while that I’m not convinced a Labour majority is likely at the next election, simply because of the toxic legacy Jeremy Corbyn bequeathed Sir Keir Starmer and the electoral geography being poorer for Labour at the next election than in 1997. The other nagging doubt is about Sir Keir Starmer, longstanding readers of PB know that leader ratings that Ipsos produce are often a better predictors of general election outcomes than voting intention polls. Starmer…

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One of the inevitable fallouts out from Nicola Sturgeon’s surprise resignation is that the SNP special conference next month might get delayed, The Guardian are reporting that Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation could prompt a major rethink around her plans to fight the next UK general election as a de facto referendum on independence, the Scottish National party’s leader in Westminster has suggested. After the shock announcement of the first minister’s departure on Wednesday, Stephen Flynn said the special conference due to be held…

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Before Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation yesterday’s big news was Sir Keir Starmer banning two time general election loser Jeremy Corbyn as standing as an official Labour candidate at the next general election. I think this is a smart move by Starmer as evidenced by the polling above, it is supported by the people (Tories, Lib Dems, and Leavers) who needs to win over to become Prime Minister. It shows the country that the Labour Party under Starmer has made a clean…

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This explains so much about Liz Truss. As someone who works in the financial services sector I can only conclude Liz Truss has never met anybody from The City. TSE

The Tory Party are determined to make AD 193 look like a year of strong and stable leadership. The Telegraph article seems to suggest Sunak could be ousted if the local elections are dire for the Tories and would lead to a rule change in when a vote of confidence can be triggered. I actually think the maximum risk for Sunak will be if the Privileges Committee inquiry into Boris Johnson and partygate recommends suspending Boris Johnson from the Commons…

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