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There’s some interesting analysis in The Observer Labour is making dramatic progress in winning back pro-Brexit voters across the country as the coalition of support for the Tories built by Boris Johnson collapses, according to detailed analysis of Thursday’s local election results. Figures from the BBC’s “key wards” data, obtained by the Observer, show support for Keir Starmer’s party was up by seven points compared with 2021 in the most heavily pro-leave wards. The data also shows that while the Tories…

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YouGov have done some analysis of the local elections which allows them to make the above predictions. Ladbrokes have markets up on who will control the below councils after Thursday’s elections, if you can spot some value let me know in the comments. TSE

Speaking to a Tory activist friend earlier on this week about how things are going on the campaigning front and they said that if the locals were solely about Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer then it wouldn’t be such a bad night for the Tories on Thursday which reflects the leader ratings which are better for the Tories than the headline voting intention figures, although last night’s Opinium might be a harbinger of that unravelling. However the rather large…

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These poll findings aren’t much of a surprise for those following events in Scotland. The figure that really stands out is Yousaf’s ratings amongst SNP voters. Back in 2010/11 one of the reasons many of bet and predicted the SNP would do better than the polls implied was Iain Gray’s dire ratings. Yousaf needs to improve his ratings if the SNP wants to retain power at Holyrood. Earlier on this week I said whilst we may have seen peak SNP…

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One of the things the government needs to do if it has any chance of having a better general election result than the current polls imply is making sure the performance of the NHS is doing better than it currently is. Whilst throwing cash at the NHS won’t immediately fix the problems, I wonder if they can fix issues with the NHS in other ways (apart agreeing deals with striking NHS staff.) The spectre of the pandemic is still having…

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This should worry the Royal Family. Most Brits seems apathetic to the coronation, particularly the young. A hereditary Head of State seems so archaic, we wouldn’t accept hereditary Prime Ministers or doctors this day and age. I think the Royals realise their youth problem which explains why Prince William has appointed darling of the young and left, Jacinda Ardern, to a prestigious role in his environment award committee and his father is reviewing his family’s shameful role in the slave…

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I feel sorry for Humza Yousaf, for incoming leaders, Humza Yousaf has received a hospital pass than can only rival the one Karl Dönitz received on the 30th of April 1945 but Yousaf also seems very unlucky. Today afternoon’s event from Yousaf is likely to be overshadowed by this morning’s events. Kate Forbes must be glad that somebody is cleaning up this mess, there’s not an unreasonable chance that Yousaf turns out to be the SNP’s version of Liz Truss….

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Just one in 1 in 5 Brits would be upset if Northern Ireland left the UK which should really alarm Unionists in Northern Ireland. I’m not surprised by this polling, back in 2019 YouGov found members of the Conservative and UNIONIST Party, radicalised by Brexit, were prepared to destroy the Union to get their precious Brexit. Theoretically these members should be the most pro-Union people in the country. Unlike Scotland, the benchmark for a plebiscite in Northern Ireland is on…

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