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One of the stories lost in the maelstrom of Nicola Sturgeon’s arrest last month was that in the first three months of 2023 the SNP received just £4,000 (yes four thousand pounds) in donations. As The National pointed out ‘The SNP’s money all came from one donor, James Murdoch from Strathearn, and was received on February 8, just a week before Nicola Sturgeon resigned.’ Meanwhile for every one pound the SNP raised Scottish Labour and the Scottish Lib Dems received fifty…

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It is possible that a plethora of by election defeats in supposedly safe seats could see Sunak ousted before the next election, we could see three of these defeats later on this month and we could see a fourth soon. As the tweet above indicates Chris Pincher’s behaviour will be severely reprimanded. Majority wise Tamworth is a smaller numerical majority than Selby & Ainsty it would actually need a larger swing than Selby & Ainsty to see the Tories ousted…

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Inflation is economic herpes and it usually fatally damages governments so it was no surprise given recent events to see Jeremy Hunt publicly criticise the Bank of England over the inflation crisis but if this is a plan to help the government in the polls then it is unlikely to work and save Sunak as we can see in the poll above. The public aren’t stupid, if Sunak wants to take the credit for halving inflation then he is likely…

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A reminder Mike Smithson is on holiday until tomorrow. TSE

Success equals performance minus anticipation is mantra I was taught, given what the plurality of Brits expect halving inflation means then Rishi Sunak isn’t going to get much reward in the polls. Perhaps with the cost of living crisis so bad most voters couldn’t afford to pay attention on how inflation works. A recovering economy might underpin a polling boost for the Tories between now and election day but if the voters do not realise it, it might put the…

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The bad news for Boris Johnson is that they support his decision to quit. This isn’t the polling for a country itching for a Boris Johnson comeback. A fun betting market would be how many Tory MPs quit with immediate effect bt Monday because we’ve just had our third one in the last day but I think Rishi Sunak will be privately happy that so many Boris Johnson loyalists are quitting. It makes managing the Parliamentary Tory Party marginally easier….

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Yesterday afternoon I thought I’d be spending most of the weekend doing pieces on Donald Trump but Boris Johnson’s intervention last night put the kibosh on that. John Rentoul has said applying the average swings in Shropshire North and Tiverton & Honiton to Mid Beds produces a come-from-3rd-place Lib Dem win so I can understand why the Tories are expected to lose both by elections. Based on Chris Bryant’s tweet I suspect Boris Johnson will not stand in Mid Beds,…

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What a 30 minutes this has been. Boris Johnson standing down as MP with immediate effect. But are he and Dorries playing 4D chess? TSE