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Author: robert

PB Video Analysis: The UK Economy – It’s Not About The Brexit

PB Video Analysis: The UK Economy – It’s Not About The Brexit

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From the outside the UK economy looks pretty healthy. Unemployment is low and economic growth has been more consistent than any of its EU peers. Little wonder its politicians regard it as a success story. There’s only one problem. The UK economy is built on an edifice of consumption and debt. The work we do? It’s selling things to each other that have been made abroad. It’s a dangerously fragile situation, where we congratulate ourselves on maxing our credit cards…

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PB Video Analysis: Who Won The Midterms? Does It Matter?

PB Video Analysis: Who Won The Midterms? Does It Matter?

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There’s this parody of Guardian readers children’s parties, where pass the parcel involves presents with every layer, and nobody is ever eliminated from musical chairs. This “all must have prizes” mentality seems to have reached US politics, as it appears that everyone won the midterms: the Democrats, the Republicans, Nancy Pelosi and President Trump. Who really won, and – ummm – does it matter? I’m diving into the numbers and letting you know who should be pleased. Robert Smithson Robert…

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PB Video Analysis: Demographics – What We Can Do

PB Video Analysis: Demographics – What We Can Do

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Demographics discussions can depress. The problems – ignored by most politicians – seem vast but distant. Better to let someone else, elected later, worry about them. But we can diminish the demographic drag. We just need to do a few things. Admittedly, we need politicians to do politically unpopular things. In this video, we look at what they are, and how they help. Robert Smithson Robert tweets as ‘@MarketWarbles’ Follow @MarketWarbles Tweet

PB Video Analysis: Optionally Rewarding – The Dark Side of Share Options

PB Video Analysis: Optionally Rewarding – The Dark Side of Share Options

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Look in any company report, and you’ll see pages of details about executive compensation. And the biggest part of this is – however dressed up – share options. Get the share price moving, and management is set to make serious money. But what if share options made companies, and the economy, more fragile and encouraged poor decisions. This time, we’re talking about the dark side of share options. Robert Smithson Robert tweets as ‘@MarketWarbles’ Follow @MarketWarbles Tweet

PB Video Analysis: Demographics Two. The Big Drag

PB Video Analysis: Demographics Two. The Big Drag

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In my last demographics piece, I looked at the boost developed countries got from falling fertility freeing up females from childcare duties. (I adore alliteration.) This piece looks to the recent past, to the experience of Japan, and asks what next? And the picture isn’t, if we’re going to be honest, a pretty one. Rising life expectancy, and birth rates below replacement almost everywhere mean that population pyramids will continue to invert. Old people produce less economic output than young…

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PB Video Analysis: The Changing Nature of Work

PB Video Analysis: The Changing Nature of Work

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In the old days, careers would be long, mortgages cheap and job titles easy to understand. But the nature of working is changing. Our grandparents would struggle to understand what we do… YouTuber, anyone? Income inequality has risen. Job security has disappeared. Is this the result of rapacious capitalists? Is it because of globalist politicians and George Soros? Or are there fundamental forces at work: do the people who employ us just know too much about our economic output? Computers,…

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PB Video Analysis: Demographics, First They Lift You Up…

PB Video Analysis: Demographics, First They Lift You Up…

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Economically speaking, the last two centuries have been pretty good for much of Europe, North America and Asia. People live longer, are healthier, and are richer than ever before. Before about 1850, economies grew slowly, barely more than a percent a year on a per capita basis. Since 1850, they’ve powered ahead. This spurt is usually attributed to technology – you know, the industrial revolution, electricity, Angry Birds, that kind of thing. But something else also matters: demographics. In short,…

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PB Video Analysis: Five Questions

PB Video Analysis: Five Questions

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So, I started doing these videos a couple of months ago, and some of them have been very successful. And others are about the Italian economy. In doing so, I discovered something: if you put video content out onto the web, you will get deluged in comments. So, I’ve been accused of being a racist, and of being soft on illegal immigrants. I’ve also received a ton of emails asking me questions, some of which were not (metaphorically) written in…

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