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Author: robert

Trumpity Trump: Why Betting on Biden is the right strategy

Trumpity Trump: Why Betting on Biden is the right strategy

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The more I think about the US election, the more I think we’re underweighting the edge scenarios. And of the edge scenarios, I think the one we’re underweighting most is the one where the Democrats have a really good night. Why? Well, let’s start with the obvious. President Trump won by the narrowest of margins in 2016. To demonstrate this, let’s play “spin the wheel”. What we’re going to do is run a little simulation with every state in 2016….

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The Other 2020 US Elections – the Democratic party fight to take back control of the Senate

The Other 2020 US Elections – the Democratic party fight to take back control of the Senate

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Yes, all eyes are on the Presidency. But let us not forget that there are other national US elections taking place on November 3: the Senate and the House of Representatives. I’m not going to dwell on the House, where I think the Republicans will regain some ground, but not enough to take the Chamber back. Instead, let’s talk about the Senate. The current composition is 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 Independents. The two Independents (Bernie Sanders and Angus…

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COVID-19: It’s Not Your Fault

COVID-19: It’s Not Your Fault

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The most seductive words in the English language are it’s not your fault. Finding someone else to blame is human nature. We all love to be told that some rank bajin is responsible for whatever ills us. We don’t have to take responsibility for ourselves, if we can only blame someone else. This is why conspiracy theories thrive. Some shadowy figures were responsible and therefore we’re not to blame. The most successful people I know never blame others, even when…

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Server Upgraded!

Server Upgraded!

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Now with shiny https! Hopefully no problems. But if you do see problems, please send me an email at my gmail, and I’ll look into them. Thanks, rcs1000

Sorry!

Sorry!

Comments 85 Comments

About all the site problems. I did a server upgrade, and Vanilla refused to play nicely with the new server. So I rolled it back… and Vanilla refused to play nicely with the old server either. 🙁 You can access the comments here. I’m communicating with Vanilla, and I’m sure we’ll get it sorted soon. Thanks, Robert

So, how will the LibDems do?

So, how will the LibDems do?

Comments 472 Comments

A forecast from Robert Let me start by saying this is not an election I have much confidence in predicting. But because that makes for an uninteresting article, I will make some forecasts. Currently the LDs are polling about 16-17%, which is about five points down on the peak they achieved after the European elections earlier this year. I think there’s around a 40% chance that they end up in the 14-19% range at the coming elections. I reckon there’s…

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Mayor Pete’s The One To Beat

Mayor Pete’s The One To Beat

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Iowa. Iowa. Iowa. I keep repeating it, because it’s important. The winner (and potentially the runner up) in Iowa define the primary process. After Obama won Iowa in 2008, he saw his national polling pop more than twenty points. In a crowded a Democratic field in need of much culling, the winner’s pop could be even greater. (Simply: there are a lot of 2% candidates whose supporters will need to find new homes after they get null delegates in Iowa.)…

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