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Author: Quincel

The Government really doesn’t want Lockdown 4

The Government really doesn’t want Lockdown 4

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Three times in the last 18 months the UK has seen COVID cases rise sharply. Three times the government has imposed national restrictions. Now cases are up again, but in a post-vaccine world the government is very resistant to go down that road. Will they be forced to? Smarkets punters say yes, albeit only narrowly. I suspect no is the better trading bet, but again with much uncertainty. Vaccines have heavily shifted the risk factors. The July 2021 case spike…

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The fight for the Lone Star State – Texas 2022

The fight for the Lone Star State – Texas 2022

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Chart from the University of Texas Next year the US midterms take place, with the entire House, one third of the Senate, and 36 governors up for (mostly re)election. While the House and Senate generally get the media focus given their importance for what the President can or cannot pass, an interesting story is developing in Texas. I’ll give you the spoiler up front: The bookies are getting too excited about a fun but rather unlikely scenario and the incumbent…

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Democrats look to be weathering the California Recall Election

Democrats look to be weathering the California Recall Election

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On Tuesday 14 September California votes on whether to replace the Governor, Gavin Newsom. California has a strong ‘recall election’ law, allowing ad hoc challenges to be made against incumbents. Indeed, virtually every Governor for the last few decades has faced serious attempts at a recall election, though none has made it to the number of signatures required to trigger a full ballot since 2003 (the one where Arnold Schwarzenegger won). Ordinarily Newsom would be totally safe, given he is…

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The SPD Surge – Who will succeed Merkel in Germany?

The SPD Surge – Who will succeed Merkel in Germany?

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The last decade and a half of German politics have been the story of one person. Angela Merkel, leader of the CDU/CSU Union, has been as dominant as any figure can be in a PR system. A very narrow victory in 2005 has been followed by comfortable wins in 2009, 2013 (where she came just 5 seats short of a majority!), and 2017. But after 16 years in office she is handing over before new elections on 26 September, and…

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Will Biden’s net approval go negative?

Will Biden’s net approval go negative?

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The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will hold terrible, often fatal, consequences for many people. Interpreters, who assisted Western forces. Journalists, who provided information to their people. Women and girls, regardless of their actions. But, from a political betting perspective, the most notable consequence is a far less important one: It’s been an awful week for Joe Biden. Smarkets allow us to bet on Joe Biden’s approval rating on his one year anniversary (of inauguration, not election). FiveThirtyEight keeps a weighted…

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Don’t fear for Keir

Don’t fear for Keir

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Bookies will give you just 1/2 on the next election being in 2024, but longer than evens on Starmer being Labour leader that long. That doesn’t add up… Clearly the market thinks there is a significant chance (implied by these odds as being at least 20%) that Starmer never makes it to the next election. That risk is being massively overstated. History Let’s start with a simple question: How many Labour/Tory leaders have their been in the last 20 years…

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