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We appear to have entered a new era of sleaze. How many scalps will it claim? First we had Owen Paterson, who lobbied government departments on behalf of companies paying him tens of thousands of pounds each. After initially backing him to the hilt, the government decided to cut him loose and he announced his resignation shortly thereafter. Now the floodgates are open, and every day brings a new front page about second jobs of conspicuous consultancy. The next person…

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After the Virginia Gubernatorial election ends over a decade of straight Democrat wins in the state, one question looms large. Is this a taster of what will happen at the Midterms? Very probably it is. Democrats have a very narrow path to retain the House, and should be considered solid underdogs to hold their 50 Senate seats*. America is the posterchild for the hyperpartisan era. We focus on the swings, but the real story is the consistency. Take Presidential Election…

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Next Thursday, America once again goes the polls. Or a few bits of it do, which hold so called ‘Off-year’ elections between four year Presidential cycles and the two year Congressional cycle. The highlight of these ‘Mid-Mid-Terms’ is undeniably Virginia, being the only statewide race which is really competitive. For a few decades Virginia has been trending steadily more blue and shouldn’t really be a sweat for the Democrats to hold, but sweating bullets is precisely what Democrats are now…

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A few weeks ago I wrote about the Smarkets market on whether the government would reimpose covid restrictions before the new year. The market, put up shortly prior to the end of restrictions in July, is called ‘Any Covid restrictions to be re-introduced in England during 2021‘. The ‘subheading’ then reads ‘Will the government re-introduce any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England before the end of 2021?‘ There have been three clarifications in the detailed rules provided by…

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55 years ago this week, a man-made landslide of coal mining by-product killed over 100 Welsh schoolchildren. It was a tragedy. It was preventable. And it got me thinking. Aberfan. Grenfell. Piper Alpha. The Harrow & Wealdstone Crash. The Kings Cross Fire. Hillsborough. Harold Shipman. The Herald of Free Enterprise. Mad Cow Disease. Reading about these disasters, so varied in many ways, commonalities emerge. 1. Disaster has many causes, but systems are at the heart Tragedy comes from a stunning…

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Under Boris Johnson the Tory poll lead seems untouchable. Untroubled by queues for petrol, supply chain issues, inflation increases, regular scandals, foreign policy mishaps, the list of things which sunk previous governments but barely scratches this one goes on and on. Many people conclude, quite reasonably, that Johnson is central to this appeal and under him the Tories are strong favourites to win another majority at the next election. So why do bookies think there is a 1 in 3…

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After last weekend the EU can finally stop putting off decisions until after the German election and start putting them off until after the French election. Very much on the horizon, voters go to the polls in April 2022 to determine if Emmanuel Macron will win a second term or who his replacement will be. A brief refresher: The French presidential election uses a two round system. If no candidate wins 50% in the 1st round (and no-one ever does)…

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The Greens have a leadership election on, in fact they are already counting the votes. Most of the voting was online, so the winner is probably already known to the IT guy at Green Party HQ. With the official announcement waiting for the final postal votes to arrive, the leadership prospects have plenty of time to ponder: Will the Greens ever gain supporters over an election campaign? Six months ahead of the 2019 election the Greens were polling roughly 5%,…

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