The betting markets haven’t caught up Last year I opined on Twitter that there were several markets at once with odds which I’d usually call ‘Bet of the Year’. I’ve previously written about all but one of these: Andy Burnham to be next Labour Leader. He’s currently 7/2 or so at the bookies and a tad longer at exchanges, but he should be far far longer. The reason for this is that Burnham really only has one clear path to…
As regular readers will know, I’m very much a disciple of Philip Tetlock and his Superforecasting approach. Forecasting is hard, and human beings are bad at it. But we can get better and more clear-eyed about the future by following a proper approach. If you read Superforecasting, Tetlock’s book, news articles he’s contributed to, or listen to the numerous podcast appearances he has made, you cannot fail to note his #1 rule of becoming a better forecaster: Keep score. By…
As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan of betting exchanges. Since they aren’t setting odds or taking risks from mis-pricings, they can easily offer a wider range of markets than their fixed odds brethren. There are two main exchanges currently, Betfair (by far the largest) and Smarkets (by far the best, but with mixed liquidity). However, there is a third exchange with good liquidity, many markets, and some appalling mis-pricings ripe for us to exploit. Sadly, we cannot…
By-elections tend to be grossly over interpreted. Boris Johnson is more likely than people think to shrug this off and govern until the next election, and even to turn it around and win that election (stunning mid-term defeats didn’t really do much to May, Cameron, or Blair). But it was still a big kick in the teeth for him, and one I thought was unlikely. Still, whether North Shropshire means Johnson will be gone by the summer or not it…
A few weeks ago I tipped the Tories to hold North Shropshire at 2/5. Since then, everything which could go wrong has gone wrong for them and 7/4 is available from two bookies (at time of writing on Friday night). Suffice to say I wouldn’t place my 2/5 bets now. But I am about to advise you to back the Tories at current odds. The core challenge in political betting, in my view, is separating emotion from prediction. Most obviously…
Last week the worst kept secret in French politics finally ended, as Eric Zemmour declared he was running for President. The far-right polemicist has raised a crescendo of media coverage, but quietly his polling might already have peaked. Two months ago, when I first discussed the French election, I argued that Marine Le Pen was a value bet so long as she could hold off Zemmour and (re)unify the French hard right. And in recent weeks, she looks to be…
It’s “fill your boots time” What is it with Mayoral Elections? My favourite bet of 2021 was laying Brian Rose for Mayor of London at single figure odds, despite his literal 0-1% chance of victory. Now 2022 looms and another inexplicable mispricing has appeared on the Mayoral ballots in May. Is this a trend? South Yorkshire is a very Labour area. It comprises 4 areas, Barnsley, Doncaster, Rotherham, and Sheffield. You may recognise those 4 areas as all having Labour-majority…
If Owen Paterson had just accepted the suspension he’d almost be returning to the Commons by now. Instead, the attempt to save him from a recall petition has led to the largest stumble since Boris Johnson took office, weeks of critical headlines, and Paterson’s resignation anyway. Now the Tories face a by-election while tied (or even behind) in the polls and in the unfamiliar position is being on the defensive. After Chesham and Amersham, could another true blue seat give…