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There are eight seats which Labour won in 2019 adjusted for the new boundaries, but where you can get real odds (1/10 or longer) on them winning this time. The first four were covered earlier. The final four are below. All majorities below are the notional 2019 result on the new boundaries Islington North. Majority: 26,188. Odds: 13/8 (Ladbrokes) The Independent who needs no introduction, Jeremy Corbyn is taking on his own party having been pretty openly forced out by…

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In 1997 Labour won a landslide with 146 gains and no losses. It stands to reason really: Their vote share rose by 8.8% nationally and with the bulk of voters deciding on national issues or loyalties that rising tide lifted all boats. Labour are currently polling roughly 10% above the 32.1% vote share Corbyn achieved in 2019, and yet the betting markets have them as outsides in two seats they hold. A further six seats have meaningful odds (1/10 or…

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2019 wasn’t all bad for the Lib Dems. Yes, they won just 8 seats and lost their leader. Which was pretty poor. But the vote became much targeted. The Lib Dems gained more than doubled their number of second place seats (from 38 to 94). A lot of these were fairly winnable, with 30 seats being theirs on a single digit swing (at least under the boundaries at the time). Even more encouragingly, 24 of those 30 seats (and 29…

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In the UK we don’t have truly national elections, each general election comprises 650 simultaneous local contests. In theory. In practice the vast majority of voters in the vast majority of seats cast their ballot on the basis of the party, or party leader, they prefer. Most don’t care, and many don’t even know, about their local candidates. That is true in almost every seat. But one of the rare exceptions might throw a stunning curveball on election night. Independent…

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Labour activists may never stop arguing about 2017. Was it an almost-victory prevented only by centrist sabotage or a dead cat bounce which proved Jeremy Corbyn couldn’t even beat ‘The Maybot’ with several lucky breaks? Whatever it was, it was the 5th most votes the Labour Party has ever won. Corbyn won more votes than Clement Attlee in 1945 or Tony Blair in 2001. Could he win more than Starmer in 2024/25? Actually, he could. Electoral Equations Obviously Corbyn’s result…

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The locals didn’t offer much comfort for the Tories. The high point was Ben Houchen surviving a 17% swing against him. The Lib Dems won more councillors than them for the first time since 1996. But there was one glimmer of hope: Reform UK fell a fair bit short of what their national polling would suggest. The Right Benchmarks They say history never repeats, but the rise of Reform is as close as we’ll get. Farage’s new party (with someone…

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From Pip Moss The next Tory Leadership contest should be one of the most fiercely fought for some time. Rather than choosing a new Prime Minister, it is highly likely the Tories will select a new leader at the same time as coming to terms with a significant, possibly even landslide, election defeat. History is not destiny, but past contests suggest a couple of betting tips at the time of writing. A Retreat to Type Parties seem to direct inwards…

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American voters look highly likely to witness a rematch in November, for the first time in almost 70 years. But while the candidates may look familiar to last time, the polls look quite different. In fact, Donald Trump has the best polling for a Republican nominee at this stage for at least 20 years. Over the last 20 years, and especially the last decade, the Republican Party has become a very successful minority party. Its big advantage in rural areas…

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