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Author: Mike Smithson

Remember that a CON-LD swing smaller than in C&A in 1990 led to Maggie going within a month

Remember that a CON-LD swing smaller than in C&A in 1990 led to Maggie going within a month

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Let’s not kid ourselves – this was a disaster for BoJo Lots of excuses being made this morning by those trying to explain the Tory flop in C&A but surprisingly little on its impact on the position of the PM who has been riding high in recent months over the handling of the vaccine. Sure there was Hartlepool on May 6th but that is so unlike the vast majority of Tory-held seats. C&A was a typical Tory stronghold in southern…

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One thing we thankfully haven’t seen in the UK – a political divide on being vaccinated

One thing we thankfully haven’t seen in the UK – a political divide on being vaccinated

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I have just discovered this polling from a few days back on vaccination take-up in the US which I find to be quite remarkable. That SIX times as many Republican voters say they won’t get vaccinated than Democrats ones is extraordinary. What does it say about GOP voters that there is an extraordinary political divide over something that undoubtedly saves lives. My initial thought was that this goes back to Trump and his scepticsm about COVID which appeared to continue…

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Today’s top tip – Don’t make an enemy of Dom Cummings

Today’s top tip – Don’t make an enemy of Dom Cummings

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Some of the headlines on By-Election morning Today’s newspapers make their main headlines the latest revelations by the prime minister’s former chief adviser Dominic Cummings. This follows his latest extensive blog post in which he seems to be singling out the HealthSec, Matt Hancock, who, of course, has had a key role to play in the managment of the pandemic. The term that Dom attributes to the PM of “totally hopeless” is going to be a difficult one to shake…

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Tories still rated as a 75% betting chance in Batley and Spen

Tories still rated as a 75% betting chance in Batley and Spen

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In that other by-election that takes place a fortnight tomorrow, the Tory position remains strong with the party at a 75% chance in the betting. That’s not as good as the current Chesham and Amersham betting but still pretty clear. Whether this is a correct indicator of the final outcome is hard to say but we’ll know on Friday morning how good the betting was at predicting this week’s by-election. The hard thing about B&S is that there has been…

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