I think the Teleggraph report is spot on. Everything depends on the public reaction and how long this domiates the headlines. To my mind this is worse than with Dom Cummings and his Barnard Castle trip last year because of the seniority of Hancock and his crucial role in handling the pandemic. Quite simply in Hancock’s eyes the rules were for others to follow not him. We’ve all had to restrict our lives for fifteen months and Hancock was not…
Should we expect the same over Hancock? Last year the news of Dom’s lockdown breaking trip to Barnard Castle had a huge impact on the CON lead in the voting intention polls. Redfield & Wilson dropped from a 19% CON lead at the start of May to a 2% one. Opinium went from 18% to 5% while with YouGov it was 20% at the start of the month to 5%. Whether all that can be atributed to the Cummings revelations…
With the less than a week to go LAB tumbles to a 22% chance in the Batley and Spen betting on a day that has seen Russia Today presenter Galloway getting increasing attention. What we do know is that Galloway is a superb self-publicist. He makes news. The big question is how effective he will be in getting LAB switchers in next week’s by-election. Paul Mason’s Tweet shows some of the efforts being made to discredit Galloway in the eyes…
One of the things that has been impressive during the whole COVID period is how well Ipsos MORI has worked tracking attitudes and seeking to get a sense of how people have been coping. The latest round of data has been published today and the top two charts give the results with the changes on November when a similar round of questions was asked. Both sets of results seek big changes and the one that worries me is the last…
Could the current Russia/RN crisis hurt his campaign? Next by-election up is, of course, Batley & Spen on Thursday next week and the main interest is on ex-LAB then ex-RESPECT MP, George Galloway who is a presenter on Russia Today. The Tories are odds on favourite to take the seat but a lot of interest is on Galloway who is never far from controversy and is now third favourite at 12/1 with Ladbrokes. An interesting bet is whether Galloway will…
How can you keep the rest of us on strict lockdown? I don’t usually agree with Baker but he is clearly right here. Making any exemption because it is politically convenient is going to undermine efforts to get support for it across the community. Until now we have all be under the COVID regime and mostly this has been followed. So what if this means that Wembley loses the European final – either you have controls in place or you…
It was inevitable given how little attention they were getting before their shock victory by some margin in C&A that the LDs were going to see something of a recovery and that is what has happened. But overall the polls are showing very different pictures of the where the Tories stand in relation to LAB. Deltapoll has the gap at 6% while Savanta puts it at 14% which would produce very different general election outcomes if that is how the…
But punters got Chesham and Amersham totally wrong The chart shows the latest betting on next week’s by-election in Batley & Spen where Labour is pinning its hopes on Jo Cox’s sister to see them home in what could be a tricky contest. This isn’t helped by ex LAB and then Respect MP, George Galloway standing on an anti-Starmer platform. I’m often asked if betting markets are predictive and last Thursday underlined the fact that they can get it terribly…